Pattern Jammin' January

[Jon]

Yes, it was on January 28, 2014.

It’s funny you say that, I was trying to find modeling around that exact time period because I remember it looked similar to what Webber just posted above (ridging over/above Alaska, cross polar flow) and it does in fact look quite similar. This pattern can lead to deep cold and deep wintry precipitation for sure.

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[Showmeyourtds]

Is 2014 the same year. 1.6 inches of snow caused major problems for Atlanta. Complete gridlock. If so I could see it happening again if the next weekend snow works out


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I think the Latoya Jackson Airport Hot Wing & Nail Emporium recorded close to 3” that day. Shut the place down for a minute or 3. I know this statement is banter-worthy, but I have a point that I’d like to make should the distinguished gentlemen that run this joint permit:

The level of cold shown on these recent model runs is something ridiculous. The blocking & the occasional lobes of the PV breaking off are remarkable. But I’d like to ask, simply because I haven’t paid much attention to the discussion-Would this level of cold be conducive to southern sliders/Miller A’s with widespread winter weather despite the lagging MJO & the teleconnections? How many standard deviations below the mean would this look like for the NAO or AO? Like for real, this is some crazy stuff. I haven’t found any resources that show what that would look like, hence my asking.

Flame away.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at western ridge just literally sit there, that’s nice, 2014 was a good winter

 

[Webberweather53]

It’s funny you say that, I was trying to find modeling around that exact time period because I remember it looked similar to what Webber just posted above (ridging over/above Alaska, cross polar flow) and it does in fact look quite similar. This pattern can lead to deep cold and deep wintry precipitation for sure.

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Lol I still can't believe we got lake effect snow bands off some of the major lakes in central NC during that arctic outbreak in January 2014, unreal.

 

[Tagat]

I think the Latoya Jackson Airport Hot Wing & Nail Emporium recorded close to 3” that day. Shut the place down for a minute or 3. I know this statement is banter-worthy, but I have a point that I’d like to make should the distinguished gentlemen that run this joint permit:

The level of cold shown on these recent model runs is something ridiculous. The blocking & the occasional lobes of the PV breaking off are remarkable. But I’d like to ask, simply because I haven’t paid much attention to the discussion-Would this level of cold be conducive to southern sliders/Miller A’s with widespread winter weather despite the lagging MJO & the teleconnections? How many standard deviations below the mean would this look like for the NAO or AO? Like for real, this is some crazy stuff. I haven’t found any resources that show what that would look like, hence my asking.

Flame away.

Not flaming and not being negative. Generally with that kind of cold look more often than not down here it suppresses the low track way down in the GOM. Not saying this is gonna happen this time not saying it won't either. This is just my humble experience with cold arctic outbreaks. Those who are more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong.

It also could be conducive for a great overrunning event not unlike the ones we had in the recent past. If a Southern slider is strong enough to walk the tight rope along the Gulf coast it could drop a good amount of snow over a wide area.

 

[sigwx]

Kinda surprised about the lack of talk about severe weather tommorow, a slight risk is concerning and it covers a decent amount of area

I think your right when it happens to tomorrow there will some people very surprised with the storms and the cold

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Look at western ridge just literally sit there, that’s nice, 2014 was a good winter

That was the last time I had a decent snow

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Winter 2014 and 2011 tied for the best of my lifetime. Multiple snows both having major impacts. Christmas and snowjam!!

 

[Webberweather53]

If you're one of those people wanting an alternative to plot monthly/daily composites of SST, z500, among other things that you can't currently do thru NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory due to the government shutdown, I recommend using the KNMI Climate Explorer that's run by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Not flaming and not being negative. Generally with that kind of cold look more often than not down here it suppresses the low track way down in the GOM. Not saying this is gonna happen this time not saying it won't either. This is just my humble experience with cold arctic outbreaks. Those who are more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong.

It also could be conducive for a great overrunning event not unlike the ones we had in the recent past. If a Southern slider is strong enough to walk the tight rope along the Gulf coast it could drop a good amount of snow over a wide area.

You just get a feeling we’ll find a way to move some cutters I mean precip through with how juiced up the STJ has been the past several months. Could be the perfect recipe OR the cold air might prevail. I mean it snows in Canada with these kinds of temperatures. Why can’t we line one up?

 

[Tagat]

You just get a feeling we’ll find a way to move some cutters I mean precip through with how juiced up the STJ has been the past several months. Could be the perfect recipe OR the cold air might prevail. I mean it snows in Canada with these kinds of temperatures. Why can’t we line one up?

I think our biggest headache is also our greatest asset: Gulf Of Mexico. Canada,MidWest and Northeast to a certain extent don't have a huge hot water tank right next to them. When winter storms start to interact with that it can bury us in snow or suck the WAA into it. Again it is a tight rope down here.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

You just get a feeling we’ll find a way to move some cutters I mean precip through with how juiced up the STJ has been the past several months. Could be the perfect recipe OR the cold air might prevail. I mean it snows in Canada with these kinds of temperatures. Why can’t we line one up?

In entertainment purposes only land on the happy hour, there was actually a wave that tried, it got squashed however. Throws Phil a bone on the surface map though.

Certain to be completely different on 0z:



In the next frame it's squashed but you see light snow and sleet deep in the south on the surface.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Anyone consider the winds that these runs are putting out as well? I noticed the Euro has 40 to 50 mph gusts across many areas as the temps plummet. It takes our temps from 41 to 7 in 6 hours, so if such an arctic blast verifies it will literally be a blast and the wind chills will be horrifically cold.

 

[deltadog03]

 

[Webberweather53]

Mid-late January 2014 is a pretty obvious front-runner to the pattern that's associated with this upcoming arctic outbreak.










Up to 1" of additional snow fell in this legitimate lake effect snow band in parts of Wilson, Nash, & Wayne counties that emanated off of Lake Kerr. Probably one of the craziest things I've ever seen here in NC.

 

[1300m]

Mid-late January 2014 is a pretty obvious front-runner to the pattern that's associated with this upcoming arctic outbreak.
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Up to 1" of additional snow fell in this legitimate lake effect snow band in parts of Wilson, Nash, & Wayne counties that emanated off of Lake Kerr. Probably one of the craziest things I've ever seen here in NC.

View attachment 11795

Yep - that radar shot looks familiar too, that has to have come from the SCO as that is my exact GR2 setup haha. I still help them out on some winter weather stuff from time to time and we put that blog post together in about an hour, truly a remarkable event (was a little disappointed to not catch any of it over in Wake Forest).

 

[Snowfan]

I'm starting to get excited about the upcoming pattern change.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yep - that radar shot looks familiar too, that has to have come from the SCO as that is my exact GR2 setup haha. I still help them out on some winter weather stuff from time to time and we put that blog post together in about an hour, truly a remarkable event (was a little disappointed to not catch any of it over in Wake Forest).

Lol I'm not surprised, your layout is really nice btw. Yeah I saved this image at the time and it's one of the cleanest shots I could get of the LES band

Here's an animation of the band (also so others here can enjoy this extremely rare event).

Looks like some virga might have developed in far northern Wake County around 9z-10z from training over Lake Kerr and Falls Lake so you were very close to getting a few flakes but light-moderate snow fell for about 2-3 hours in parts of Nash & Wilson counties!

 

[Storm5]

Yep - that radar shot looks familiar too, that has to have come from the SCO as that is my exact GR2 setup haha. I still help them out on some winter weather stuff from time to time and we put that together in about an hour, truly a remarkable event (was a little disappointed to not catch any of it over in Wake Forest).

I think this is important to remember . Sure everyone wants a big storm with a foot of snow . But a few inches followed by days of brutal cold can be far more impactful and in fact is my preference when it comes to winter storms


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[Storm5]

I think this is important to remember . Sure everyone wants a big storm with a foot of snow . But a few inches followed by days of brutal cold can be far more impactful and in fact is my preference when it comes to winter storms


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This was supposed to be a reply to Webb’s post about 2014 lol


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