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Pattern Jammin' January

Stormlover said:
Oh yes he does. He's a good meteorologist in Louisville. Jeez, can't post anything on here without someone complaining.
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He is saying it goes off the charts negative. The only thing that does is the Control, the EPS mean is around -2. The Control is wildly inaccurate.

Its not complaining, just clarity.
 
SD said:
Sign me up
8765736bd6cf85d042e3da8e701cb78d.jpg


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now that right there...to me....says heads up for GOM surface low potential.
 
deltadog03 said:
Actually on that map....the control goes off the chart...the mean, is not, but it's deeply negative.
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Yeah, its still great no doubt. That said it would be the same as posting the QPF chart with precip behind the 0C line and saying its snow, when not noting that the QPF measured fell 6 hours before the temp reached 0C. We rail on JB, Cohen and Spann, so we need to point out this inaccurate statement.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, its still great no doubt. That said it would be the same as posting the QPF chart with precip behind the 0C line and saying its snow, when not noting that the QPF measured fell 6 hours before the temp reached 0C. We rail on JB, Cohen and Spann, so we need to point out this inaccurate statement.
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agreed, the met that said that was clearly wrong..I agree
 
NWMSGuy said:
Saw this on Twitter a few minutes ago:
View attachment 11283
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Yeah definitely still an outlier. But interesting to see.
This is very similar to some of those snowier gefs members posted earlier.

64EE62F5-A9F6-4E22-8627-995F9CB56FDF.gif

End of run. Notice separation between the energy (red color between them) this is very different from OP models.

F0B97249-20E2-4BAB-A0DE-9387F3E7FB18.png

It is the nam at 84. But nam did ok at range with the recent ice event I think.
 
Well, it is the NAM, I don't trust it that much in this range...BUT......check out this trend of the last 4 runs of the doc....check out what is starting to show up in the northern branch and between the northern and southern branch...something to potentially watch as we go through the next few days......
ecmwf_z500a_us_fh96_trend.gif
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, it is the NAM, I don't trust it that much in this range...BUT......check out this trend of the last 4 runs of the doc....check out what is starting to show up in the northern branch and between the northern and southern branch...something to potentially watch as we go through the next few days......
View attachment 11293
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This is the first system around the 20th correct?


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deltadog03 said:
Well, it is the NAM, I don't trust it that much in this range...BUT......check out this trend of the last 4 runs of the doc....check out what is starting to show up in the northern branch and between the northern and southern branch...something to potentially watch as we go through the next few days......
View attachment 11293
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Ridge is much taller on the last frame! That’ll get it in the right direction!
 
12z ukmet had seperation today as well. Not to this extent,but it was way more south than gfs twins
 
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