• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

ATLwxfan said:
I may be mistaken but I recall the GFS sniffing out both the December 2017 and January 2018 snow events in Atlanta. Both in the 6 to 7 day range. Ensembles weren’t great but I can’t recall if they saw anything in the long range.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Im sorry but you are mistaken, at least on the December storm. It was wayyyyyy off untill right before the storm started. The NAM and CMC led the way with it. I dont remember much about the January storm though so you might be right there.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I hear you but if the ensemble has several members and thus a potentially higher predictive value, what is the purpose of the operational model?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Wanna know something that’ll really get your goat? Without the operational, there would be no ensembles!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Im sorry but you are mistaken, at least on the December storm. It was wayyyyyy off untill right before the storm started. The NAM and CMC led the way with it. I dont remember much about the January storm though so you might be right there.
Click to expand...

CMC you’re totally right. I remember now thinking how crazy that was!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
pcbjr said:
Great posts folks!

To dumb it down a bit ... models are just that ... representations ... not reality.

If they were, they would be named "God" ...

... and none of us would be here wondering about flakes next week ...

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Model: a simplified description, especially a mathematical one, of a system or process, to assist calculations and predictions
Click to expand...
Best post of the New Year...
 
ATLwxfan said:
Sure I get that but isn’t the operational just one of the members of the ensemble?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I was just messing with you. The operational is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control). Then, the initial conditions are tweaked and that is re-run 25 times (I believe) for the GFS and 50 times for the Euro. As far as the operational goes, it’s honestly not worth putting much stock in after 5-7 days. The ensembles are more useful at determining general period of storm signals as well as the general nature of how the pattern may evolve.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Sure I get that but isn’t the operational just one of the members of the ensemble?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Operational is the starting point for each member. Each member tweaks certain initial variables from the operational to come up with a different possible solution but still center around the initial run. (I may have simplify that a little to much) Those with more knowledge correct me if I am wrong on the idea tho.
 
Rain Cold said:
I was just messing with you. The operational is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control). Then, the initial conditions are tweaked and that is re-run 25 times (I believe) for the GFS and 50 times for the Euro. As far as the operational goes, it’s honestly not worth putting much stock in after 5-7 days. The ensembles are more useful at determining general period of storm signals as well as the general nature of how the pattern may evolve.
Click to expand...

Thanks a lot. Great summary! So it’s abundantly clear that this run to run obsession that many including myself have with the Op runs for 10 days out is somewhat of a fool’s errand. The GEFS has been a steady ship.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Im sorry but you are mistaken, at least on the December storm. It was wayyyyyy off untill right before the storm started. The NAM and CMC led the way with it. I dont remember much about the January storm though so you might be right there.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that event looked at best marginal until two or so days before when the CMC blew the doors off and the NAM followed.
 
Listen to the seasoned individuals on Here. This is a great pattern we are about to get in. I’m excited and everyone else should be too. Not everyone will score most likely, but someone will and it could be big. Patience everyone.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, that event looked at best marginal until two or so days before when the CMC blew the doors off and the NAM followed.
Click to expand...

Ohh yes my favorite storm system... many models around 5 daya had marginal amounts and varying locations around 5 daya out many models held serve all the way right up to event but around day 3 NAM and CMC really started sniffing out totals and area of impact must metreologist blew off but we all shouldve known something was up when it was overproducing models all the way back to texas.... my county was right in crosshairs with about 12inches
 
Rain Cold said:
I was just messing with you. The operational is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control). Then, the initial conditions are tweaked and that is re-run 25 times (I believe) for the GFS and 50 times for the Euro. As far as the operational goes, it’s honestly not worth putting much stock in after 5-7 days. The ensembles are more useful at determining general period of storm signals as well as the general nature of how the pattern may evolve.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the insight about the models and why not to trust them outside of 7+ days out
 
It’s the nam but it has trended way slower with the energy for the 20th. Which means more stream separation and more dig..

E076A0E2-5E54-4ACB-A1D9-1E32A9FA7D84.png
C9736E14-9455-4780-87F5-7E9C3D068459.png

Most models have the LP on TX OK border at this time
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top