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Pattern Jammin' January

NCSNOW said:
Agreed. We need to start looking at NOGAPS , Korean, and JMA. One of the models is bound to be first to see the next SE snowstorm, which should begin to pop up anyday now. Bet we are tracking by the weekend.
By sunday we will be able to see into February 240hr mark
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Please. Bring back the dgex model.... I miss those bright color clown maps lol
 
This eps run has to be the coldest yet HOLY HELL
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snowlover91 said:
It's an important piece of the puzzle for sure. I personally like a nice PNA out west that forces our energy to dig south into Texas/Mexico area or undercuts it and enters over the Baja region. That's how we get a lot of our GOM Miller A storms and gives some nice wiggle room even if the storm amps up some. Models show this feature developing after the 24th and as we get closer I wouldn't be surprised if more wintry solutions begin appearing... we just have to patiently wait for the 20th and 23-24th system to pass first.
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This is spot on.......
 
Storm5 said:
This eps run has to be the coldest yet HOLY HELL
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Man, if I lived north of the red line, I would be so stoked right now. Our friends in northern TX up across far northern MS and AL and western TN up through the northern mid-Atlantic, the midwest, and Mexico are going to get decimated.

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Maybe in the next few frames over the next run or two, the deeper anoms will migrate to the south and east some.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol what’s this WAR you speak of
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Thanks Storm, that's strange. With that look you'd think the cold would have a better push southeast. The block is building in on top of the PV nicely. Perhaps it's the SE ridge that's keeping it back. SE ridge doesn't look strong through.

Perhaps the western ridge is too far west, which pops more of a SE ridge?
 
SnowNiner said:
Thanks Storm, that's strange. With that look you'd think the cold would have a better push southeast. The block is building in on top of the PV nicely. Perhaps it's the SE ridge that's keeping it back. SE ridge doesn't look strong through.
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Yeah by day ten it’s pretty much gone
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SnowNiner said:
Thanks Storm, that's strange. With that look you'd think the cold would have a better push southeast. The block is building in on top of the PV nicely. Perhaps it's the SE ridge that's keeping it back. SE ridge doesn't look strong through.

Perhaps the western ridge is too far west, which pops more of a SE ridge?
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Eventually the trough in the means slides east and amplifies in virtually all guidance, that's huge red flag that there's going to be at least one pretty massive storm somewhere in the vicinity of the OH/TN Valleys or Great Lakes that interacts the PV lobe coming down out of Canada, eventually helping to establish the coveted SE Canada gyre that we often need to shear & suppress shortwaves within the subtropical jet in addition to supplying us with copious amounts of cold air.

Contrary to what some have claimed here earlier wrt a pattern like this largely being cold & dry, I actually think it's probably going to be active or try to be anyways given we're in an El Nino event that will also become superimposed onto a west-central Pacific MJO event at the end of the month which often invigorates the subtropical jet and the waves within it in our part of the world.
 
In comparison to what we have seen the last several years pattern wise, I don't think you can ask for a better shot than what is "possible" per the model outputs downstream. Might not pan out but it's lining up rather nice to those with a tad bit of patience.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eventually the trough in the means slides east and amplifies in virtually all guidance, that's huge red flag that there's going to be at least one pretty massive storm somewhere in the vicinity of the OH/TN Valleys or Great Lakes that interacts the PV lobe coming down out of Canada, eventually helping to establish the coveted SE Canada gyre that we often need to shear & suppress shortwaves within the subtropical jet in addition to supplying us with copious amounts of cold air.

Contrary to what some have claimed here earlier wrt a pattern like this largely being cold & dry, I actually think it's probably going to be active or try to be anyways given we're in an El Nino event that will also become superimposed onto a west-central Pacific MJO event at the end of the month which often invigorates the subtropical jet and the waves within it in our part of the world.
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You can see the STJ lurking on a lot of the long range models. I too have a hard time seeing anything getting shut down and think it's more things are shifted south

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SD said:
You can see the STJ lurking on a lot of the long range models. I too have a hard time seeing anything getting shut down and think it's more things are shifted south

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This is literally one of the best patterns you could ask for if you wanted to see a classic southern slider at the end of January or early February & is one that historically tends to deliver that kind of storm the most often. I really, really like where we're headed.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is literally one of the best patterns you could ask for if you wanted to see a classic southern slider at the end of January or early February & is one that historically tends to deliver that kind of storm the most often. I really, really like where we're headed.
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Sorry for the banter but Webb please RE post this every hr. ! Thank you


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Webberweather53 said:
This is literally one of the best patterns you could ask for if you wanted to see a classic southern slider at the end of January or early February & is one that historically tends to deliver that kind of storm the most often. I really, really like where we're headed.
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All of that, with a massive lobe of very cold air over a dense snow pack through the OH valley and New England. The table is set for a memorable event(s). Now the fun part is almost here - seeing who gets what and actually having real storms to track and not a bunch of erroneous model noise 10+ days out.
 
1300m said:
All of that, with a massive lobe of very cold air over a dense snow pack through the OH valley and New England. The table is set for a memorable event(s). Now the fun part is almost here - seeing who gets what and actually having real storms to track and not a bunch of erroneous model noise 10+ days out.
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What do you think the time frame is for having our first real trackable storm?
 
Sleet City USA said:
What do you think the time frame is for having our first real trackable storm?
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Based on the latest trends it appears (most likely) the 1/20 system will cut. I'm still keeping an eye on the next one around 1/23 if the timing could improve but the really favorable pattern arrives behind that one around 1/25 and after.

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