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That gefs really keeps the hope alive. It’s obviously seeing seeing the possibilities that the gfs doesn’t see.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
GFS cuts the 23-24 storm majorly, cold chasing moisture for parts of the south, we’ll see if the ensembles support this.
It would be nice to see the ops jump on board and follow suit. Either the ops are out to lunch or the ensembles are pure fantasy.
I think the next week is going to suck waiting. But I'm really starting to think our patience will pay off. ALL (for real, like ALL) guidance shows the last week of January as the time when we really get blocking up top, push the PV south/southeast and get the storm track where we need it. And it makes sense as there's evidence that after several weeks, the SSW is starting to do work (and the zonal wind is still easterly today!). See Ventrice tweet below. So for the next week, I just don't think looking at individual operational model runs is going to be good for my health. I just need to look at January 29 ensembles and if I still see the below, I'm good. After this, you can also see the WAR start to dissolve, likely to the look on the weeklies, but I won't speculate on that....but that's my hope. GEFS may be a day or two too fast, but EPS generally agrees.
At that point, there's no end in sight. We could be in unprecedented territory here. A split flow pattern, active stj with all out blocking up top and a true -NAO for what, like 6 weeks? Think about that. There's nothing to say that we can point to say that won't happen. Somehow it could, and in the SE somehow it does. But at this point from a forecast perspective, I'll gladly wait another week of looking at cutters if it means we get multiple weeks of what the weeklies are putting out.
I'd say around MLK we start seeing more consistent fantasy storms in the long range, that's my guess. Nice place to be right now, IMO.
At that point, there's no end in sight. We could be in unprecedented territory here. A split flow pattern, active stj with all out blocking up top and a true -NAO for what, like 6 weeks? Think about that. There's nothing to say that we can point to say that won't happen. Somehow it could, and in the SE somehow it does. But at this point from a forecast perspective, I'll gladly wait another week of looking at cutters if it means we get multiple weeks of what the weeklies are putting out.
I'd say around MLK we start seeing more consistent fantasy storms in the long range, that's my guess. Nice place to be right now, IMO.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Of course, this is all conditional on if the pattern the models are showing actually materializes and is not fantasy itself.
No, its seeing 16 or so other solutions. Storm5 said it after the big 18z run yesterday and was dead on. The Op run needs to be taken as one solution in a broad range of solutions. The models are stuck with an impossible task. For instance on the threat talked about above, they have to figure out the location of the first wave and then any phasing energy. The pattern we are going into is highly dynamic and unpredictable which will bring cliff divers and model huggers galore.
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Euro drop of few inches of snow in west Tennessee Sunday
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Not this time, it's more than that IMO. Smart folks are looking at the mechanics of it and see the blocking as an inevitability. HM thinks the blocking call is easy pesey. From my previous post, many see the blocking as a response to the downward propagation of the SSW taking effect, which is right on time. That's the thing for me, it's not just the models showing model stuff right now, it's models showing what's already expected because of other predictable elements.
Completely could fall apart, that's how we do in the SE. But.....but, this time seems substantially different.
This is generally what's expected in this kind of winter given an El Nino + SSW that effectively propagates into the troposphere. The favored climatological window for cold/snow in the SE US during a NINO as I've alluded to numerous times is late January thru early March and thus it's not a huge surprise NWP looks good as we enter the beginning of this often anomalously cold/snowy window.
I think this is where @Rain Cold wants the PV. If this happens and it doesn’t snow, do we even deserve snow?
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro is about to pound west Tennessee next Thursday
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For those of us in NC, SC and GA here is my take on the upcoming pattern and what we need to see for some winter weather chances.
Notice first that there is very little ridging out west so energy is entering the US and pretty "flat" which makes it incredibly easy for a storm to form and cut. Our storm on the 20th is in Nevada in this frame and you can see if it moved due east across the US it would take the low pressure over us or to the north. Now add in all the energy flying around and you get a storm that juices up and ends up cutting up the Apps putting our region in the warm sector.
Notice the next storm, this is the energy for the 23-25th system. Once again there is very little ridging out west and it is in almost an identical position to the previous storm. This would favor another cutter IMO.
Now notice the significant change that happens past 200+ hours that could change things in our favor. A tall ridge builds in and forces the energy to either go up and over it OR cut underneath it. This ridge is a bit far west for my liking but it's a 10 day run so no need to go into details. The main takeaway is we finally have a large ridge that can help force some of the energy to the south into Texas/Mexico which is where we want to see it for a nice Miller A or southern slider scenario to occur. Model don't really develop this feature until around the 24-25th so I would look to see how this evolves in future more runs. Without this feature places in NC, SC and GA will need to either hope for the PV to drop south and suppress the storm track (but also risk shredding the energy, cold/dry pattern) or hope for a perfectly timed sequence of waves which is difficult to accomplish.
The EPS also agrees quite well with the look overall, again I'd like to see the Western Ridge shifted east a bit but it is still a much better look than what we have taking place the next 7 days.
The 12z Euro look is closer to what we want but still needs to shift things east a little bit more.
Notice first that there is very little ridging out west so energy is entering the US and pretty "flat" which makes it incredibly easy for a storm to form and cut. Our storm on the 20th is in Nevada in this frame and you can see if it moved due east across the US it would take the low pressure over us or to the north. Now add in all the energy flying around and you get a storm that juices up and ends up cutting up the Apps putting our region in the warm sector.
Notice the next storm, this is the energy for the 23-25th system. Once again there is very little ridging out west and it is in almost an identical position to the previous storm. This would favor another cutter IMO.
Now notice the significant change that happens past 200+ hours that could change things in our favor. A tall ridge builds in and forces the energy to either go up and over it OR cut underneath it. This ridge is a bit far west for my liking but it's a 10 day run so no need to go into details. The main takeaway is we finally have a large ridge that can help force some of the energy to the south into Texas/Mexico which is where we want to see it for a nice Miller A or southern slider scenario to occur. Model don't really develop this feature until around the 24-25th so I would look to see how this evolves in future more runs. Without this feature places in NC, SC and GA will need to either hope for the PV to drop south and suppress the storm track (but also risk shredding the energy, cold/dry pattern) or hope for a perfectly timed sequence of waves which is difficult to accomplish.
The EPS also agrees quite well with the look overall, again I'd like to see the Western Ridge shifted east a bit but it is still a much better look than what we have taking place the next 7 days.
The 12z Euro look is closer to what we want but still needs to shift things east a little bit more.
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Euro looks really good.Euro is about to pound west Tennessee next Thursday
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