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It’s cause the energy is strung out from one side of the country to the next
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packfan98
Moderator
And there's the big ball of energy off the S Cali coast that just won't kick out...
12 cmc was headed for glory
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Northern stream crush. Anyways, no worries. We are entering a better period with cold around soon guys.. for a wide area of the board to have multiple chances in all likelihood. Wild model swings and systems showing up and disappearing are to be expected.
Right now, I'd just assume it's about to get a bit colder throughout the South, so get all your outdoor activities settled, regardless.
Right now, I'd just assume it's about to get a bit colder throughout the South, so get all your outdoor activities settled, regardless.
Even if that look verified which it won’t we could still see some overrunning before the big cold gets in but that is irrelevant as it will be different next run
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snowlover91
Member
After the 26th, IF the PV presses down as modeled on the ensemble sweets and OP runs, I think most of the south will have a chance for a board wide event or close to it. Getting that PV to press down and suppress things is IMO the #1 key... at the same time if it presses down too much it'll shred everything and suppress things too far south and we will just be cold and dry.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GFS says to NC and parts of SC in fantasy fantasy land: How would you like a massive ice storm?
snowlover91
Member
Talk about a massive winter storm lol. I don't think I've ever seen this much snow/ice modeled even in the LR over such a large part of the US.
packfan98
Moderator
It appears that we have to get through the next two storms that will help set up the pattern. Then we wait to see if we can get some energy coming across to line up with the cold air. Still a ton to sort out right now. Hopefully by the end of next week we can be trying to reel one in.
snowlover91
Member
At least the one positive is the next 2 storms will help put down a nice large area of fresh snow to our north. This should definitely help with future systems if we can get more of a suppressed look.
A lot of people living/dying with every run of the OP GFS...smh. Honestly, trusting anything these models spit out more than 3 days in advance is pure folly anymore. Sometimes there is just "too much going on" as someone just said for the models to even score close to verification. If the models can't get it right 4 days out, everything else is just one big error/truncated afterwards.
Just give me a decent pattern and we can work out the details between friends. Models are a long way from replacing solid Meteorology and those who can recognize patterns. We need a message from HM and an interpretation by Webber! LOL! A message from Larry would be great too!
Just give me a decent pattern and we can work out the details between friends. Models are a long way from replacing solid Meteorology and those who can recognize patterns. We need a message from HM and an interpretation by Webber! LOL! A message from Larry would be great too!
snowlover91
Member
Didn't see it mentioned but the UK is trying to cutoff our system for the 20th and has a more suppressed track now... interesting change.
NEGaweather
Member
The real cold and the real threats wont come til late Jan and Feb. That's when the PV will drop south enough to Supress.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Having the better pattern come after the second storm certainly would go along with the GFS tries to bring on changes too fast.
Jessy89
Member
All the gfs says and has been consistent on is it will be cold! At least it will feel like winter but know one should be surprised when it’s February 1st and most people in the south hasn’t seen any snow. The real pattern we are in is one that keeps delaying itself over and over again. Right now only thing certain is the cold
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D
Deleted member 527
Guest
Ukie is second in verification scores. Ahead of both Gfs.
Lol all I keep reading about is getting a suppressed look . I could care less . If your looking for a board wide storm we need a suppressed look. But at this way all I care about is my backyard and my area can score without it .
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Jessy, that's true but having the cold air is the most key ingredient. Can't have winter weather without cold but not seeing anything until Feb. 1st? I think you are speaking out of frustration. I don't remember a 2 week period without precip since....I don't know when. Just get us the cold air and half the battle has been won!