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Pattern Jammin' January

It’s days like these where you can really see which areas are favored in a true wedge scenario
 
Here's a preliminary map of the bout of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain that affected the far western piedmont and blue ridge escarpment. Thankfully we didn't get more precipitation this morning & late last night.
January 23 2019 NC Snowmap.png
 
Not quite apples and apples, but given the source and the date range, one must at least wonder ... which will it be ... if either ... o_O


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ICON had something at the end of the run.
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accu35 said:
Congrats man, hopefully we see a bigger deal in a few days.
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For about the past 10 years, we’ve usually gotten a teaser event days before the big one, for instance there was a minor sleet & snow event along the Gulf Coast before 1/28/14.
 
RollTide18 said:
I will say, the GFS & FV3 were the only models showing anything close to what Central AL got this morning, maybe the GFS isn’t that bad after all ?
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Yeah I meant short range models LOL, yeah gfs/fv3 was on top of things with that.
 
I’m not sure I would completely toss the 12z GEFS. The cold never completely leaves the east as a whole after next weeks major cold outbreak.


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NChailstorm on amx. He was pretty good with catching/calling this out in advance last time.

Coronal hole rotating in today (Jan.24th-Feb.3rd) meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime around Feb.2nd-Feb 7th given a 9-14 day lag on this.It should reemerge around Feb.11th-Feb 16th given another 9-14 day lag after the rotation ends(Feb.2nd).
MJO should progress and tick stronger the next 10 days solar wind was pretty low Jan.8th-Jan 23rd,should get to p7 maybe p8.
Just my opinion.
 
deltadog03 said:
EURO looks interesting possibly late next week. hard to tell on freebies
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Yes the ECMWF is really close in general to producing a classic southern US overrunning event in the first day or two of February. In general this is a look we want for a setup like that with a big vortex departing over SE Canada & New England and a wave in the southwestern US. Would like to see the large-scale flow veer a little more to out of the WSW aloft across a greater area of the SE US but this could become a legitimate threat down the line if a couple dominoes fall into place in our favor over the next 3-4 days.

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I guess it's good to see a chance at another threat to follow versus nothing, especially if we miss out on the systems here this weekend and the middle of next week. We do seem to be in a more than favorable pattern for winter storms. Just hope it actually produces here.
 
Yet another threat over 7 days away. The cmc showed it to.


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accu35 said:
Just think, models wasn't that impress with snow showers for your area, and yet a dusting? Wow!
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Goes to show models are not gospel. Was supposed to get back end snow showers and a possible dusting last night and didn’t see a flake from this one. Congrats to everyone south as I already got snow last weekend so I’m glad to see others get in on the action.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes the ECMWF is really close in general to producing a classic southern US overrunning event in the first day or two of February. In general this is a look we want for a setup like that with a big vortex departing over SE Canada & New England and a wave in the southwestern US. Would like to see the large-scale flow veer a little more to out of the WSW aloft across a greater area of the SE US but this could become a legitimate threat down the line if a couple dominoes fall into place in our favor over the next 3-4 days.

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18z GFS now keying on the same wave
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