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Pattern Jammin' January

Brick Tamland said:
So, are we in the better pattern for more winter storm chances yet, and somehow missing the storms, or have we not gotten into that pattern that was supposed to be so good yet?
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I think the models tease us with a good pattern. Only to reset and make it appear good 7-10 days out only to never come. This is probably banter but I feel like it’s a serious truthful trend this year for the models.


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Brick Tamland said:
So, are we in the better pattern for more winter storm chances yet, and somehow missing the storms, or have we not gotten into that pattern that was supposed to be so good yet?
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The pattern changed to colder as expected. I'm not sure anyone would have seen the Pacific retrograding and the pv contracting/ moving to NW canada in feb. Chances are we see the pac retrograde enough that we see an aleutian low west coast ridge and eastern trough by mid feb. It wouldn't be shocking if we got some flakes between now and 2/1 but I'm not holding my breath

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It’s fun to kid around in the complaint thread some, but I’m not really sold on the fact that the cold pattern breaks down for more than a handful of days, if that. I’d feel better about it if we could get some sustained blocking to show up like what should happen. But I’m not seeing any evidence of a solid -NAO yet.
 
Rain Cold said:
It’s fun to kid around in the complaint thread some, but I’m not really sold on the fact that the cold pattern breaks down for more than a handful of days, if that. I’d feel better about it if we could get some sustained blocking to show up like what should happen. But I’m not seeing any evidence of a solid -NAO yet.
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Some of the stuff that Bob Chill said on American recently was interesting (and stuff I was able to grasp! at least some). The big thing that I got was he's not sold that the pacific jet will do what it did in December and blast all of the cold out of United States as there is a cold pool near there this time. I think that's the biggie on what I'm worried about. If the pacific wakes up and turns most of the US into being mild, we can probably turn the lights out in Alabama-Georgia-South Carolina after January ends.
 
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Ok I like this look considering icon has a warm bias. Upstate sc and Georgia would be in play to


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Some of the stuff that Bob Chill said on American recently was interesting (and stuff I was able to grasp! at least some). The big thing that I got was he's not sold that the pacific jet will do what it did in December and blast all of the cold out of United States as there is a cold pool near there this time. I think that's the biggie on what I'm worried about. If the pacific wakes up and turns most of the US into being mild, we can probably turn the lights out in Alabama-Georgia-South Carolina after January ends.
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That’s a good point. If we get a raging PAC jet, yeah you can kiss it goodbye. I do not think that will lock into place, though. We may see it influence the pattern for a bit, but I think it relaxes and a ridge goes up in the west again shortly. All that’s if the pattern breaks down appreciably in the first place.
 
Well here’s a positive. Warm biased ICON goes in the freezer. Euro might have legs. JB scores the coup?
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Jessy89 said:
29eb7afc2fb70284bc0d80e66f512102.jpg


Ok I like this look considering icon has a warm bias. Upstate sc and Georgia would be in play to


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Yep, that would likely get it done for more Western areas. Precip should be more expansive with a system that wound up.
 
Well, folks, any thoughts about entertaining the idea for a -PNA in early Feb. are out the window based on the latest EPS, which isn’t surprising considering El Niño, the promise of weak MJO phases on left side of circle, etc. Look out Fab Feb, here we go!
 
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I know this place is a damn ghost town now BUT, strong CAD signature and over all ACTIVE pattern on 12z GFS. We are one good run away from Storm offering to sodomize pigs. Ok maybe two runs.


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TT Note:

"Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data."
 
Rain Cold said:
TT Note:

"Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data."
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Thanks I just saw that...... interesting other sites not having same issue, of course I have no idea how that stuff works.
 
metwannabe said:
Thanks I just saw that...... interesting other sites not having same issue, of course I have no idea how that stuff works.
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Yeah, I don't know. I'm guessing he has some proprietary mechanism that pulls the data and populates his algos. I suspect the problem is with that mechanism, rather than being on NOAA's end.
 
Rain Cold said:
TT Note:

"Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data."
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government shutdown?

Webberweather53 said:
Not sure if anyone mentioned or heard, but one of my buddies down in south Houston picked up snow/sleet this morning after being near 70F late yesterday evening. Houston only gets trace snow events once every few years, it's his second for the season
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yeah that was quite a flip
 
Euro puts the hammer down, up to 50 below normal in parts of the midwest & Ohio Valley. Our coastal storm in the medium range will play a significant role in the evolution of this end of the month cold snap if one comes to fruition.
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Rain Cold said:
The GFS suite has the mjo meandering through phase 6. The Euro whips it into phase 7 pretty rapidly. That may be why you’re seeing a much warmer GFS and GEFS.
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I'm guessing that it will be somewhere in between. The Euro has been underestimating the MJO amplitude all winter. I will guess that it takes a few more days to get to phase 7 than what it currently shows.
 
Here is my new outlook. I don’t do this for clicks or money. There’s going to be a winter storm at least in the climo areas if euro is right with cold snap. Most winter storms strike as the cold is leaving. I am favoring the first half of February being better than the second half. Watch out north of Charlotte and west of Raleigh. Not a strong snow signal but more of wintry mix setup IMO. In fact, I foresee the rest of the winter featuring no all snow events for most east of the blue ridge. There could still be some 3-6” potential but mixing will rule the rest of the winter. As we enter March, I think a flip could occur to more snow over mixing in the climo areas. More on that later.
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you think I will get a 4" snowstorm in southeast Wake county? There have been a lot of crows cawing around the area. But I have not yet seen many groupings of blackbirds eating off the ground, with the exception of before the December storm. I have noticed that the squirrels have been burrowing furiously over the last week and a half. One even tore up part of my canvas grill cover and used it for its nest!
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I think it’s doubtful at this point. Some snow yes but no all snow events the rest of the winter that Far East. Hope I’m wrong but that December storm will likely be the only widespread snow event for the Carolinas. The rest will feature heavy slop mixed bags bringing snow totals generally under 3”.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
LOL! Tony, I know you love rubbing salt in that old wound.

Here's hoping this winter brings you the sleet storm of your dreams my friend. As long as that PV hangs around close enough, you never know. You certainly can't go by model guidance this season. Quite possibly, the worst model performance that I can seem to remember altough I know its probably been worse.
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I just use them for entertainment value. If something is showing 3 days out, I get more interested. Or, if Goofy and the Doc are in agreement, but that's not very often..thus the added importance :) I like the new Goofy ok, but it's has the same wild ideas Goofy gets after smoking too much. At least I haven't seen the 0 line in Cuba with the new one yet...but I may have missed it, lol. Thanks for the sleet wishes!!
 
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