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Pattern Jammin' January

DixieBlizzard said:
Jessy, that's true but having the cold air is the most key ingredient. Can't have winter weather without cold but not seeing anything until Feb. 1st? I think you are speaking out of frustration. I don't remember a 2 week period without precip since....I don't know when. Just get us the cold air and half the battle has been won!
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I keep seeing get the cold first, but I don't think a long period of really cold temps does us much good. I keep going back to it, but the early December storm happened a week after the temp was close to 70 here. I think we actually do better with storms with big swings like that than getting a really cold pattern set in. Yes, you need cold, but it isn't any good if you can't get storms to go with it.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Jessy, that's true but having the cold air is the most key ingredient. Can't have winter weather without cold but not seeing anything until Feb. 1st? I think you are speaking out of frustration. I don't remember a 2 week period without precip since....I don't know when. Just get us the cold air and half the battle has been won!
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What I mean is winter weather. I’m sure we see plenty of rain. I think if we have that big dog storm we may have to wait till February I could be wrong because though hope I am. I’m very happy about the cold


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Always,Always ,Always Root, Take,Buy,Pray for the Cold first and foremost in the SE. Don't care what the risk or cost is for getting it. Then squaler and worry about moisture. You stay cold long enough/sustained down here and you'll score. .2 qpf in 15:1 ratio air is 3-4 inches of snow. Don't need.5+ to get 5:1 ratio wet 3 inch snow.
 
snowlover91 said:
Didn't see it mentioned but the UK is trying to cutoff our system for the 20th and has a more suppressed track now... interesting change.
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That will work, espeacilly anafrontal for NE NC, SE VA as the rain changes over in the end. GFS is already showing a 3 hour window for this area. Or it has been, I havent checked 12z yet.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I keep seeing get the cold first, but I don't think a long period of really cold temps does us much good. I keep going back to it, but the early December storm happened a week after the temp was close to 70 here. I think we actually do better with storms with big swings like that than getting a really cold pattern set in. Yes, you need cold, but it isn't any good if you can't get storms to go with it.
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I have seen it work both ways, snow during a pattern change and snow when cold air has been established. I think from a region-wide perspective, cold air being established with a non-amped system overrunning seems to work out better for more people here. Those events never seem to be modeled well either. The snow you had in early DEC was missed by my area by 35 miles. Always a huge cutoff seemingly in those situations (see Wake County..LOL!)
 
Brick Tamland said:
I keep seeing get the cold first, but I don't think a long period of really cold temps does us much good. I keep going back to it, but the early December storm happened a week after the temp was close to 70 here. I think we actually do better with storms with big swings like that than getting a really cold pattern set in. Yes, you need cold, but it isn't any good if you can't get storms to go with it.
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Sorta agree with you. In 2014, during those two events in Late Jan and Mid Feb, there was definitely larger swings in the temps. A week after the Mid Feb storm, it hit 80 degrees here.
 
Jessy89 said:
I saw about 3inches from December storm. Here in upstate sc. that’s a decent event. But I’m hoping for that one big 6+ inches that covers Atlanta to Gsp.


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If you want a 6" snow that covers Atlanta you're gonna have to wait a while. Its been 36 years since the airport had a 6" snow !
 
Too bad this is past hour 300 but it'd actually make sense with the step down process and the process of the GFS always brings something along too fast:

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It kinda wouldn't surprise me if it gets squashed later though, based off what I'm seeing in the NE. We need suppression, but would that be too much?
 
Jessy89 said:
I don’t understand how the gfs does what it did yesterday at 18z. And then loses the high all together. It goes from a 1055 high. To no high at all I mean you’d expect it to show up weaker and weaker but at least still be there. It’s just crazy how things changed In one run.


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Every run won't be the same in the mid to long range. Heck, sometimes in the short range, modeling changes a lot. The atmosphere is very complex. One thing changes, it changes everything else. The winter storm that we saw yesterday may return. Who really knows, nobody knows. Anything beyond 5-7 days has very little skill.
 
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