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Pattern Jammin' January

cyclogent said:
THIS. Its hour 240 on the 6z FV3 but exactly what I think we'll see this weekend behind the front (except for central MS) before moisture outruns the cold. Tupelo, MS to Florence AL, to Crossville TN is the cutoff 90% of the time with artic fronts, and reason for ice instead of snow is due to the initial shallowness of artic air masses post-fropa.

In the snow department, the old GFS 6z looks very reasonable IMO. Jonesboro AR to Clarksville TN to Bowling Green KY line for 1" cutoff, with dusting to 1/2" south of there for northern middle and west TN and northern AR.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

snku_acc.conus.png
Click to expand...
Yep, and if you look at the upper air depiction, you can see a couple of things that stand out, which support your point:

fv3p_z500_mslp_namer_41.jpg

The big red area shows where the PV is. Right up in the wrong place. Short waves rotate around it, with areas of subsequent high pressure after the wave moves by. As you can see in the smaller red circle, that high is too far north. Looks like this past weekend. Plus, there's no way it will be that strong. So we have to look elsewhere for help. Maybe the western ridge? Nope. Unfortunately, it's too far west for much of the SE. And what do you get? A storm that cuts inland with what will be marginal cold air on the north west side.

Even if we get a slight change, and you get some sort of northern wave out ahead of the southern wave, the air still looks to be quite marginal for much of the SE, given where the core of the cold sits. All that said, we're still 10 days out, so it's almost senseless to analyze in this kind of detail. But we're going to need to see some fairly big changes with the PV placement if we want to see a better cold air feed. Otherwise, we need a perfectly timed phase, which would likely only work out for the western and northern portions of the SE for this particular threat.

My number one rule for being enthusiastic for a genuine SE winter storm is a legitimate cold air feed where legitimate cold air is available. I don't see a way for that to turn up here, based on what this model is showing. I'm not poo pooing the chance for wintry weather. Not at all. But the odds are not all that great, given what we see now. Maybe that changes in the next few minutes, though. We will see.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yep, and if you look at the upper air depiction, you can see a couple of things that stand out, which support your point:

View attachment 11059

The big red area shows where the PV is. Right up in the wrong place. Short waves rotate around it, with areas of subsequent high pressure after the wave moves by. As you can see in the smaller red circle, that high is too far north. Looks like this past weekend. Plus, there's no way it will be that strong. So we have to look elsewhere for help. Maybe the western ridge? Nope. Unfortunately, it's too far west for much of the SE. And what do you get? A storm that cuts inland with what will be marginal cold air on the north west side.

Even if we get a slight change, and you get some sort of northern wave out ahead of the southern wave, the air still looks to be quite marginal for much of the SE, given where the core of the cold sits. All that said, we're still 10 days out, so it's almost senseless to analyze in this kind of detail. But we're going to need to see some fairly big changes with the PV placement if we want to see a better cold air feed. Otherwise, we need a perfectly timed phase, which would likely only work out for the western and northern portions of the SE for this particular threat.

My number one rule for being enthusiastic for a genuine SE winter storm is a legitimate cold air feed where legitimate cold air is available. I don't see a way for that to turn up here, based on what this model is showing. I'm not poo pooing the chance for wintry weather. Not at all. But the odds are not all that great, given what we see now. Maybe that changes in the next few minutes, though. We will see.
Click to expand...

We are still at the point that a favorable pattern may establish day 10+. Yeah, the day 6-7 threat is a chance but a very low one for us. We are going to take another trip through the warm MJO phases.

Good news is that day 10+ cold does seem to dump into the southern plains. Until then we look to get cold from rainy fronts passing.

This may be a great pattern below for TX to AL so that would be great.

E2F71A9A-A518-48F5-8F19-2D0EB4A458CB.png
 
Good luck figuring out all this energy . Gonna be some wild op runs in the coming days
582fdada23b70807e99a7b502f86be12.jpg


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