Pattern Jammin January 2024

[J.C.]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[griteater]

I think the February 12-13, 2010 storm was the same storm that model guidance kept suppressing the slp down to Cuba until about 48-72 hrs prior. I remember that was my early days of participating on weather forums. I think I was following/tracking that event on the Accuweather or Eastern/AmWx forums back then. Memory is kinda fuzzy outside of the meltdowns that happened over those suppressed model runs. ??

Yeah I saved a copy of that GFS run that sent the 2/12/10 storm to Cuba

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yeah I saved a copy of that GFS run that sent the 2/12/10 storm to Cuba

Wow. 90 hours out too.

 

[Chazwin]

Wow. 90 hours out too.

My point forecast from GSP in the afternoon update on 2/11/10 was for a 30% chance of light snow. However even with the evening model runs you could tell that would probably bust. The overnight update, they issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2”, then with the late morning update on the 12th they upgraded Union County to a Winter Storm Warning for 2-5”. The snow started just before 4pm and I ended up with 5.7” IMBY. So yeah, things adjusted very quickly with that one.

 

[griteater]

 

[Rain Cold]

A long time ago, I used to only look at the CPC temp and precip outlooks to determine whether or not we were heading into a potentially good pattern. Oh and the TWC Days Inn 5 day business planner.

 

[BullCityWx]

Yeah I saved a copy of that GFS run that sent the 2/12/10 storm to Cuba

That was 9” of snow in Forest Acres, SC four days later

 

[Chattownsnow]

Does anybody have a link to the verification scores of the models at each hr interval? Curious to see how they have been doing. A big storm or change in the pattern can wreak havoc on them for sure.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Huge improvement on the icon

 

[coldspringsfarm]

Yeah I saved a copy of that GFS run that sent the 2/12/10 storm to Cuba

Ah, who can forget the Cuban Mis-SLP Crisis of 2010!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon starting off 00z looking great. TPV progressing east, southern stream waves entering the US.

 

[ghost1]

Do we ever start threads for severe frigid temps? There is strong consensus that the 15th-18th period is likely to be quite bitter especially for those of us in the western and central viewing regions

 

[BullCityWx]

?

Icon looks really really good

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Total separation of the cold lobes in the northern hemisphere. Pretty cool. Be a lot cooler if we didn’t get the red headed step child piece. Other side of the hemisphere is going to win and win big this month. It’ll be hard to watch

 

[SD]

Do we ever start threads for severe frigid temps? There is strong consensus that the 15th-18th period is likely to be quite bitter especially for those of us in the western and central viewing regions

Depends how cold it is honestly

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

I hope they get the severe cold and we get the heavy snow

 

[TheBatman]

?

Icon looks really really good

Icon does look good. Reminds of the good ole days of the extend NAM. I think it was the DGEX and it only ran on 6z and 18z.

 

[Heelyes]

Icon does look good. Reminds of the good ole days of the extend NAM. I think it was the DGEX and it only ran on 6z and 18z.

DGEX had the most epic clown maps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS so far with a deeper vortex over the lakes. Pacific wave entering the west. Let’s see what happens