• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2024

weatherfide said:
But two days later you end up with this:View attachment 140393
Which you probably won't like as much.
Click to expand...
And the next day...
ec-fast_z500a_namer_11.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
And the next day...
ec-fast_z500a_namer_11.png
Click to expand...
If the Euro is right, which i think we all know by now it isn't, the low will pivot northeast with a glancing blow for the majority of the SE. Ideally, a trailing wave will be there and the low in the NE will be slow to lift out due to the block, giving the trailing wave an opportunity to remain south of the area.

Anyway, I'm not expecting much until late December early January mid January late January and into February.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
Click to expand...
 
weatherfide said:
But two days later you end up with this:View attachment 140393
Which you probably won't like as much.
Click to expand...
Is it time to bring out the “Euro is holding back the energy to the southwest” card? I know I’m a weenie but when you cycle through the run it looks like that low in the Rockies doesn’t move for like 3 days.
 
Stormdoc said:
Is it time to bring out the “Euro is holding back the energy to the southwest” card? I know I’m a weenie but when you cycle through the run it looks like that low in the Rockies doesn’t move for like 3 days.
Click to expand...
I’m drawing my “euro has amp bias” card.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'll have to go back and find it. I did glance at it and saw phase 1 was about the worst phase possible for a winter storm. I found that strange since you always here phase 8 and 1 are good.
Click to expand...
What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
 
Stormdoc said:
Is it time to bring out the “Euro is holding back the energy to the southwest” card? I know I’m a weenie but when you cycle through the run it looks like that low in the Rockies doesn’t move for like 3 days.
Click to expand...
Then you would love the 00Z version:
ecmwf_z500a_namer_57.png
 
Billypg70 said:
What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
Click to expand...
Really you have to go to the 2nd level with mjo and go mjo plus enso state to get a better idea just saying phase x is result y isn't always applicable
 
Billypg70 said:
What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
Click to expand...
It may not be the holy grail (I don't think anything is, tbh), but I don't recall very much in the way of cold weather and snowy patterns for the SE when it has been in P3-6, where it has lived the majority of the time in winters of late. I have seen several modeled cold and snowy patterns, but I don't recall observing any actual ones. I will be fair and say that I'm just going from memory and haven't kept a log or anything.

I suppose there could be a situation where the actual value measures such and such, but tropical convection is behaving differently. Anyway, we have plenty of predicted 4-6 ahead of us, so let's see what the index actually does and how the atmosphere actually behaves.
 
Billypg70 said:
What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
Click to expand...
Pretty much that's correct. The chances are less in those phases though. The composites here likely focus on the overall pattern in general. Not that we can't time something and snow but I'm not sure any great pattern flip is coming a little after mid month. We are almost certain headed to phase 4 around the 15th which is the worst possible timing for that. It's not a torch pattern moving forward but the cutter pattern probably isn't going anywhere. Now when you get to Feb these stats do change and the MJO holds less influence.
combined_image.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top