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Pattern Jammin January 2024

SD said:
I'll be honest delaying dumping the cold into the SE a few days like the euro/cmc probably isn't a bad thing. There's a better chance to capitalize on what they have at d10 than what the gfs has
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I think the GFS is a bit too fast and will adjust slower in time.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
And the next day...
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Yes please!
 
SD said:
I'll be honest delaying dumping the cold into the SE a few days like the euro/cmc probably isn't a bad thing. There's a better chance to capitalize on what they have at d10 than what the gfs has
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I actually think there’s some truth to what you’re saying. It seems that whenever we see the cold come straight southeast, that’s when it overtakes the pattern to squash energy and moisture too far south…December 2002 for example.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Pretty much that's correct. The chances are less in those phases though. The composites here likely focus on the overall pattern in general. Not that we can't time something and snow but I'm not sure any great pattern flip is coming a little after mid month. We are almost certain headed to phase 4 around the 15th which is the worst possible timing for that. It's not a torch pattern moving forward but the cutter pattern probably isn't going anywhere. Now when you get to Feb these stats do change and the MJO holds less influence.
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Agree with Grit & you.
I'm not arguing that we don't want every Teleconnection on our side.
I know certain patterns are much more productive than others but it often still a thread the needle situation.
I'm staying positive Bc in the 100+ years of record keeping 2 snowless winters B2B haven't happened yet at GSP.
So this is our year.
Timing is going to work.
 
Chazwin said:
I actually think there’s some truth to what you’re saying. It seems that whenever we see the cold come straight southeast, that’s when it overtakes the pattern to squash energy and moisture too far south…December 2002 for example.
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Yep you never want to go full dump. I'm sure someone may have stats to prove me wrong but I remember very few significant snow events at the front of an arctic outbreak
 
Nothing wrong with this.

I legitimately see more than one way score in this pattern

(I.e classic overrunning as the big vortex passes over the Lakes and SE Canada and/or a cold air damming event as the vortex ejects out into Atlantic Canada w/ subsidence and surface pressure rises out ahead of the trailing ridge)


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SD said:
I'll be honest delaying dumping the cold into the SE a few days like the euro/cmc probably isn't a bad thing. There's a better chance to capitalize on what they have at d10 than what the gfs has
Click to expand...
Worth noting to the slower this airmass moves and progresses, the colder it will probably be. You can see that on runs that are more consolidated out west initially before they start to slide east
 
Webberweather53 said:
We may very well see the cold shot slow up a bit more over the Rockies in the medium-extended range (days 5-8), but it’s not going to stay there for too long in this case. The -NAO and trailing Pacific jet extension will force this mass eastward
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I would agree, we could see the pattern change slow a bit more but I also think that could be a good thing as well.
 
Been an observer for many years from the previous site to others you that have been around know my reference up to this excellent site. I don’t get to worked up these days over the lack of snow but sure miss the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s as far as snowfall goes. Super glad to read everyone’s input from an intellectual, professional, and enthusiast stand point.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nothing wrong with this.

I legitimately see more than one way score in this pattern

(I.e classic overrunning as the big vortex passes over the Lakes and SE Canada and/or a cold air damming event as the vortex ejects out into Atlantic Canada w/ subsidence and surface pressure rises out ahead of the trailing ridge)


View attachment 140401
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Def nice to see that 50/50 signal still there at the end of the run. Still some skin in the game
 
deltadog03 said:
I would agree, we could see the pattern change slow a bit more but I also think that could be a good thing as well.
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Patterns like these are nice in that there’s more than usual wiggle room to keep legit threats around. I wouldn’t sell the farm on it yet, but there’s a real chance we end up seeing more than one threat out of this.
 
SD said:
Yep you never want to go full dump. I'm sure someone may have stats to prove me wrong but I remember very few significant snow events at the front of an arctic outbreak
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I will always vote for the window of opportunity to stretch out. Espeacilly this year as we get hit repeatedly every 3-5 days with precip events. I love pipe busting vodka cold, but not needed to get the ground white. Thats Goal #1
 
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