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Pattern Jammin January 2024

The GEFS once again looks pretty good here pattern wise.

Big vortex over SE Canada and the Great Lakes with a trailer disturbance digging into the southern Rockies/ New Mexico.

That’s usually how you get overrunning events in the southern US

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Also looks plenty cold enough with -5C 850s down to I-40

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Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS once again looks pretty good here pattern wise.

Big vortex over SE Canada and the Great Lakes with a trailer disturbance digging into the southern Rockies/ New Mexico.

That’s usually how you get overrunning events in the southern US

View attachment 140384
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Are you seeing anything that gives you pause for concern? Or do you think everything is progressing nicely for at least a shot of something wintery? Also are your thoughts still the same on a big Feb?
 
Stevo24 said:
Are you seeing anything that gives you pause for concern? Or do you think everything is progressing nicely for at least a shot of something wintery? Also are your thoughts still the same on a big Feb?
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I can see the cold getting held up a tick longer over the Rockies, but outside of that and the usual storm-scale details we really have no control over/can't forecast w/ much confidence this far out, no.

We're mostly just pattern & ensemble watching this far out. The operational runs are cool, but don't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS once again looks pretty good here pattern wise.

Big vortex over SE Canada and the Great Lakes with a trailer disturbance digging into the southern Rockies/ New Mexico.

That’s usually how you get overrunning events in the southern US

View attachment 140384


Also looks plenty cold enough with -5C 850s down to I-40

View attachment 140385
Click to expand...


The GEFS is biting. 0C 850 line almost down to the I-20 corridor.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-5309200.png
 
I like how the CMC Ens is using the cutter storms to feed ridging out in front of them into a heavy Greenland block, whereas the GEFS wants to plow the cutter storms into the block and weaken it a bit. In contrast, the GEFS has the better Pacific side.

But ideally, the cutter storms would feed into a heavy block, then the TPV would slowly rotate to the east underneath it....then not have the trough dig into the west thereafter. Let's see what the EPS says

BJ4Yi3a.png


6UFErlY.png
 
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
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This has been my concern too. Sure, we’ll get the cold. But, suddenly the moisture pipeline will shut off or we’ll force it too far south to get anything out of it.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
Click to expand...
That's the way it is with our climate now. The cold comes with dry air, and the precip comes with warm air.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That's the way it is with our climate now. The cold comes with dry air, and the precip comes with warm air.
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In Atlanta metro, we had the cold air in place, followed by the moisture when we got a good ice/snow storm. I will put my money in that scenario any day over too cold to snow.
 
I would be excited about the long range for snowfall if I was in Memphis or Nashville.
Brick Tamland said:
That's the way it is with our climate now. The cold comes with dry air, and the precip comes with warm air.
Click to expand...
Dude, that's how it's always been! Cold air holds less moisture than warmer air. It's basic physics.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
Click to expand...
There’s going to be plenty of moisture
 
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