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Pattern Jammin January 2024

TheBatman said:
I think she might be a cutter. Sorry guys. View attachment 140413
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The surface low moved from Biloxi to just south of Cape Fear… so I suspect that there might have been a Miller B transfer in there. I’ll be interested to look at the GEFS panels because I suspect there’s a signal for some decent CAD with where that high was at and how the low moved. This is the start of a time period that I think there could be a mixed precip/ice event on the table in the Carolinas and Virginia.
 
SD said:
By 210 the pac jet is extending and there's a nice storm S of the aleutians this is attempting to pump a west coast ridge and kicking a reinforcing cold lobes SE from the NWT. Clear the cutter and you might have something post 240
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Like grit was saying yesterday let’s continue to feed that 50/50 low with cutter bombs to reinforce our -NAO. If we can do that we may be able to pop a favorable +PNA for a small window where we can time something up.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Like grit was saying yesterday let’s continue to feed that 50/50 low with cutter bombs to reinforce our -NAO. If we can do that we may be able to pop a favorable +PNA for a small window where we can time something up.
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Imo some iteration of this is the best shot for this window. I still think there's a much better pattern sitting out there in early to mid Feb that will dunk all over this
 
SD said:
Probably too much pac jet on the gfs it's extended to the west coast so you get a flatter wider western ridge and kind of meh
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Isn't the jet supposed to retract later?


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weatherfide said:
That look might work for NC, but not for GA.
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Day 12 clipper. No way this works out as depicted. But, I'm getting the feeling if we're going to score snow this year, we'll have to get lucky on an overperforming clipper type system. Storms are continuing to cut like we're still in a la nina.

Day 12:
1704668070107.png
 
After a couple of clippers, it's disappointing to see the cold relax so easily during peak season. Cutters, clippers, transitory cold. Can't win around here. Someone give me a good gulf low like the good old days.

According to the GFS it doesn't even really get THAT cold in the southeast. Cold air gets stuck in the midwest and we warm up from the Gulf.

gfs_T2m_us_57.png
 
What are the chances when the jet retracts later the cold is nowhere to be found?
 
Looking at the GEFS individual members and there is a strong consensus for that nasty cutter and severe weather around 120 hours followed by many instances of really cold air out to 168 hours. That's probably all I can really gather from modeling at this point. No snow in my area shown on any of the individual members - yet. Out to 186 hours...
 
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