Pattern Jammin January 2024

[Chazwin]

What would get really interesting is to see how many occurred in bad phase mjo but if you go back 5, 7, 10 days was the mjo in the favorable phase that dropped in the cold but we were suppressed then as it relaxed we scored

Well just one example… January 2011 which is probably the closest thing to a boardwide hit since January 1988…it was in the COD to start the month kinda on the border of phase 6 and 7 and then came out into phase 6 on the 8th and the storm began moving across the south on the 9th.

 

[J.C.]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow in TN and Northern parts of Ms, AL, GA behind the big system this week. Those areas tend to do well in the CAA of these amped cutters the last few years

To your point:

 

[Chazwin]

Eyewall(Meteorologist) on americanwx is very concerned about the SER being a issue

Obviously I’m not a meteorologist, and the SER is always there and you can’t help but to wonder how much it will flex. However, when we have the active and intense STJ that we’re seeing it does mute the SER and its effects.

 

[severestorm]

Obviously I’m not a meteorologist, and the SER is always there and you can’t help but to wonder how much it will flex. However, when we have the active and intense STJ that we’re seeing it does mute the SER and its effects.

Feels tropical and cutter to have a intense STJ without a stationed banana high.

 

[Flotown]

heres to great 18z model runs.....i hope

 

[TheBatman]

heres to great 18z model runs.....i hope

At 162 hour on GFS is looking good so far.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Obviously I’m not a meteorologist, and the SER is always there and you can’t help but to wonder how much it will flex. However, when we have the active and intense STJ that we’re seeing it does mute the SER and its effects.

Rule of thumb is that once that SER gets going in late January/early February it’s nearly impossible to erode. At best you can push it just off the coast and into the Atlantic but more times than not it becomes a dominant feature into March.

 

[TheBatman]

I think she might be a cutter. Sorry guys.

 

[WNC_Fort]

18ZGFS brings the cold but looks like it's setting up for another cutter the week of MLK Day.

 

[Flotown]

missouri mawler..lol

 

[SD]

The 18z gfs looks like the the 12z euro. The hope will be the tpv in SW can ejects and is part of that cutter which bodily moves the cold out and it tucks into the lakes SE can setting the stage for something day 12-15

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I think she might be a cutter. Sorry guys. View attachment 140413

Yes. Stubborn ridge. Had some nice ingredients there though

 

[WNC_Fort]

The low actually ends up in the gulf but the cold air is gone/SER is raging.

 

[TheBatman]

 

[LukeBarrette]

What a massive L that would be having the suppressive northern piece phase too early with the SW wave.

 

[WNC_Fort]

Lol. It's almost like a classic Miller A and it's still too warm even for the mountains. Jeez.

 

[Flotown]

i dont dislike that look...workable

 

[JLL1973]

Gfs dead set on giving the midsouth a winter storm in Jan 15-16 time period

 

[Flotown]

Gfs dead set on giving the midsouth a winter storm in Jan 15-16 time period

yep us western folks are close...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This is an incredible pattern setting up for the interior NE. Going to be some juicers this month