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Pattern Jammin January 2024

This a snooze fest, but possibly the first wintery precip to fall here in two years so...

Seems like a solid chance of light freezing rain from 1am-5am Friday morning for NE Ga/Upstate SC. All the models are dropping somewhere between .05 and .25 of liquid.

The airmass in place looks to be mid/upper 30's with dew points around 10 degree's per hi-res models. If we can squeeze out enough moisture to wetbulb there could be a light glaze.

Seems like the main question is whether or not we get enough precip to drop below freezing. .05 wouldn't cut it, but .20+ would get it done.
 
All the ensembles look pretty darn good and still on time. Transition begins 1/28 and by last day of January we have a stellar pac ridge building up into the NW territories and look good east coast. I will be very surprised if we don't see a split flow storm or two get sent our way first week of February. Best news east of the Apps is we will have way way better confluence from the NE thankfully as Fro was pointing out with this type of configuration.
Meanwhile we should see some flakes flying Friday. Really surprised how much moisture showed up here past 2 days. Models (ops) really missed that for my back yard.
 
NCSNOW said:
All the ensembles look pretty darn good and still on time. Transition begins 1/28 and by last day of January we have a stellar pac ridge building up into the NW territories and look good east coast. I will be very surprised if we don't see a split flow storm or two get sent our way first week of February. Best news east of the Apps is we will have way way better confluence from the NE thankfully as Fro was pointing out with this type of configuration.
Meanwhile we should see some flakes flying Friday. Really surprised how much moisture showed up here past 2 days. Models (ops) really missed that for my back yard.
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Are we sure the ensembles are showing a good pattern at the end of the month? To me, the western ridge is a bit too far east and we're still pretty warm. Too much pacific jet? I know it's early, but I don't think it's so great yet. I saw the weeklies and they looked great for mid February, but no so sure we start the month jamming.

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SnowNiner said:
Are we sure the ensembles are showing a good pattern at the end of the month? To me, the western ridge is a bit too far east and we're still pretty warm. Too much pacific jet? I know it's early, but I don't think it's so great yet. I saw the weeklies and they looked great for mid February, but no so sure we start the month jamming.

View attachment 142648
View attachment 142649
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Mid-February is generally too late for my area. If this is correct, winter is a wrap for me, unfortunately. This week was our "window" and we missed it.
 
weatherfide said:
Mid-February is generally too late for my area. If this is correct, winter is a wrap for me, unfortunately. This week was our "window" and we missed it.
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You won't be alone...it's over for most of us outside of the mountains and points north. We blew our chance but many got snow...MS/AL/VA and they probably aren't done.
 
April 24, 2021 +
trace​
March 06, 2015 +
trace​
February 12, 2010
9.1​




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February 01, 2007
0.3​
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February 19, 2006 +
trace​
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February 06, 1995
0.8​
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March 13, 1993
10.7​
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April 10, 1990
trace​
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February 11, 1985
2.0​
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February 05, 1984
2.5​
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March 24, 1983
20.1​
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March 02, 1980
6.9​
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February 18, 1979
10.2​
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February 21, 1978
0.8​
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March 14, 1976 +
trace​
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March 25, 1972 +
trace​
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February 16, 1969
2.0​
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February 29, 1968
5.8​
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February 09, 1967
5.1​
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March 11, 1960
10.2​
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February 15, 1958
6.9​
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February 26, 1952
9.9​
​
May 24, 1949 +
trace​
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March 03, 1947 +
trace​
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March 05, 1943
1.0​
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March 02, 1942
9.4​
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February 10, 1934
10.2​
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March 21, 1933 +
trace​
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March 09, 1932
0.8​
A good amount post 2/1.
 
SnowNiner said:
Are we sure the ensembles are showing a good pattern at the end of the month? To me, the western ridge is a bit too far east and we're still pretty warm. Too much pacific jet? I know it's early, but I don't think it's so great yet. I saw the weeklies and they looked great for mid February, but no so sure we start the month jamming.

View attachment 142648
View attachment 142649
Click to expand...
Absolutely nothing wrong with the 500mb look on the EPS/GEFS/and the GEPS… that’s all I care about this far out. The ridge out west is in a good location and it’s helping the angle of the cold moving into the east and settling up better confluence in the NE… something we haven’t had this week.
 
NoSnowATL said:
April 24, 2021 +
trace​
March 06, 2015 +
trace​
February 12, 2010
9.1​




​
February 01, 2007
0.3​
​
February 19, 2006 +
trace​
​
February 06, 1995
0.8​
​
March 13, 1993
10.7​
​
April 10, 1990
trace​
​
February 11, 1985
2.0​
​
February 05, 1984
2.5​
​
March 24, 1983
20.1​
​
March 02, 1980
6.9​
​
February 18, 1979
10.2​
​
February 21, 1978
0.8​
​
March 14, 1976 +
trace​
​
March 25, 1972 +
trace​
​
February 16, 1969
2.0​
​
February 29, 1968
5.8​
​
February 09, 1967
5.1​
​
March 11, 1960
10.2​
​
February 15, 1958
6.9​
​
February 26, 1952
9.9​
​
May 24, 1949 +
trace​
​
March 03, 1947 +
trace​
​
March 05, 1943
1.0​
​
March 02, 1942
9.4​
​
February 10, 1934
10.2​
​
March 21, 1933 +
trace​
​
March 09, 1932
0.8​
A good amount post 2/1.
Click to expand...
Things were different years ago. It is not as easy to score in Feb and March as it used to be.
 
Snowlover87 said:
Probably for the first half of Feb. I think it’s been 14 years since Atlanta had anything of note past Valentines Day.
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Post Feb 1st. No real change over the last 50 years.
Atlanta 2010- 2020- 4 events

2000- 2009- 3 events

1990- 2000- 3 events

1980- 1990- 4 events

1970-1980- 4 events
 
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