Pattern Jammin January 2024

[KyloG]

Waiting until the Valentines-President's Day timeframe for a decent hit put us at end game 2 min warning time in my view.

Have to start airing it out

Hopefully we can get another Feb 2015...4 events in a 10 day period. Would be a great winter if so.

 

[WNC_Fort]

I know @Webberweather53 said we'd be lucky to squeeze out anything in the Carolinas in Jan. Do you still feel good about Feb? Because, latest I've seen seems to indicate we punt at least until mid-month?

 

[rburrel2]

Going to be some teeth gnashing that after the next few days winter on hiatus until mid-Feb. We have to get ourselves out of this mess to end January, that will take time. So yeah, let's hope/pray by mid-Feb we have a serviceable pattern. ?

View attachment 142444

That's not an end of January prog.

All 3 global ensembles show us going below normal around January 29/30th. By mid-february we will probably have cycled through another good pattern and heading back to a bad one.

 

[Chazwin]

Going to be some teeth gnashing that after the next few days winter on hiatus until mid-Feb. We have to get ourselves out of this mess to end January, that will take time. So yeah, let's hope/pray by mid-Feb we have a serviceable pattern. ?

View attachment 142444

Looking at all the ensembles along with the weeklies, we actually get back into a better pattern fairly quickly after this. Even Webb has mentioned that he expects this milder period to last only a few days. Even in this frame you can see the western ridge starting to go up.

 

[rburrel2]

I know @Webberweather53 said we'd be lucky to squeeze out anything in the Carolinas in Jan. Do you still feel good about Feb? Because, latest I've seen seems to indicate we punt at least until mid-month?

Huh?
Why would you punt until mid-February when this is showing up for January 31st?

 

[KyloG]

That's not an end of January prog.

All 3 global ensembles show us going below normal around January 29/30th. By mid-february we will probably have cycled through another good pattern and heading back to a bad one.

But like you said day 15+ isn't to be believed. What we do know is the last week of Jan isn't a great pattern unless you like warm/wet. The 2 weeks after that the MJO will be in phase 6-7...is that a good pattern for snow/cold?

 

[rburrel2]

Looking at all the ensembles along with the weeklies, we actually get back into a better pattern fairly quickly after this. Even Webb has mentioned that he expects this milder period to last only a few days. Even in this frame you can see the western ridge starting to go up.

Agreed. I'm thinking Feb 1-10th is going to our best chance all winter. Anecdotally, This has also been the best timeframe imby for the last 5 years or so.

 

[CaryWx]

Ya'll the mjo forecast 3-4 weeks out is basically just as un-reliable as using the 384hr GFS. No reason to panic. It's honestly not even worth looking at that far out.

Agreed. If it doesn't amp out like that in 6/7 at month's end but rather circles a little more tightly we get to 8 much much sooner.

 

[Chazwin]

I know @Webberweather53 said we'd be lucky to squeeze out anything in the Carolinas in Jan. Do you still feel good about Feb? Because, latest I've seen seems to indicate we punt at least until mid-month?

I’m not sure where you’re getting mid February from… especially from what Webb has been talking about. There’s really good ensemble agreement that we’re back in a favorable pattern to start the month… basically following the progression he’s talked about since late November

 

[rburrel2]

But like you said day 15+ isn't to be believed. What we do know is the last week of Jan isn't a great pattern unless you like warm/wet. The 2 weeks after that the MJO will be in phase 6-7...is that a good pattern for snow/cold

So the 3-4 week MJO is set in stone, but all 3 major global ensembles aren't to be believed around day 15?

Of course anything can happen, but there's no reason to be in the dumps about the first half of February, imo.

 

[CaryWx]

Think a lot of this is dependent on just how amped and strong that warm pattern becomes. The larger the longer it takes to break down.

 

[KyloG]

So the 3-4 week MJO is set in stone, but all 3 major global ensembles aren't to be believed around day 15?

Of course anything can happen, but there's no reason to be in the dumps about the first half of February, imo.

I'm not in the dumps...I like warm and wet nino's. Don't you?

But if you believe day 15-16 global ensemble runs then why don't you believe day 15-16 global ensemble MJO runs?

Today's Euro run so shows amped phase 6 to end Jan....that ain't good.

But I get it, if we want to close our eyes and hope, that sounds fun too.

 

[CaryWx]

So the 3-4 week MJO is set in stone, but all 3 major global ensembles aren't to be believed around day 15?

Of course anything can happen, but there's no reason to be in the dumps about the first half of February, imo.

The mjo has a myriad of solutions with a mean just like most anything else. Most all rotate it around as depicted. Some are more closer to the CoD. It may not take the guided mean route. I doubt it takes one much further out. If anything it will be a tighter rotation, but that prong at month's end is there. Just have to hope not so stark and pointed.

 

[Stevo24]

Good gosh I get on here and we’re already talking mid February. I’m about to be all out.

 

[rburrel2]

I'm not in the dumps...I like warm and wet nino's. Don't you?

But if you believe day 15-16 global ensemble runs then why don't you believe day 15-16 global ensemble MJO runs?

Today's Euro run so shows amped phase 6 to end Jan....that ain't good.

But I get, if we want to close our eyes and hope, that sounds fun too.

View attachment 142454

That literally shows us entering phase 7 on January 27th, if you look at the time it took to go through phase 4,5,6 we would be entering phase 8 around February 2nd or 3rd. What am I missing?

 

[KyloG]

That literally shows us entering phase 7 on January 27th, if you look at the time it took to go through phase 4,5,6 we would be entering phase 8 around February 2nd or 3rd. What am I missing?

Huh?


We've

 

[CaryWx]

I'm not in the dumps...I like warm and wet nino's. Don't you?

But if you believe day 15-16 global ensemble runs then why don't you believe day 15-16 global ensemble MJO runs?

Today's Euro run so shows amped phase 6 to end Jan....that ain't good.

But I get, if we want to close our eyes and hope, that sounds fun too.

View attachment 142454

If you look at depictions from about the 17th/18th out to the 23rd you can see a tighter cluster running just inside the main general forecast area. If it leans more towards that cluster then by the 23rd you see a less amped pattern emerging. So from the 23rd onward projections can be just noise at the moment.

 

[rburrel2]

Huh?

View attachment 142458
We've

You're back to looking at the 20-30 day prog again which is meaningless.

 

[iGRXY]

We are not going to have to wait until mid February lol. That doesn’t mean it’ll snow but pattern wise? February looks decent all around

 

[NCSNOW]

Does it really matter what phase the mjo is in anymore? Seriously, theres always an aurgument to handicap any posotive takeaways no matter what phase it is in. I dont even bother with it, it gets tiring. Never forecasted accurately, always an excuse well if we where in such an such pattern, or it was month x this would be good for SE, but because its xyz its not going to net the same result.
Just watch ensembles and use what your eyes show you pattern chasing. When i see a monster ridge going up the west coast up through western canada i get excited. Then fill in the pieces from there.
Now if one wants to dissect what makes that western ridge get so tall, go for it.
MJO chasing to me has become as fruitful as Judah Cohen snowcover chasing in the fall.