Pattern Jammin January 2024

[SD]

There are a number of frames on each model today where you look at them and say woo boy that could be a big one. Obviously getting near or inside of D7 you want more fruit from the models but the setup is certainly there for 2-3 opportunities anyone of which could be large. I will say this as well we all remember and love to run analogs of the supportive patterns that hit by I guarantee you that there are good patterns on paper that missed that most don't remember the missed.

 

[1300m]

There are a number of frames on each model today where you look at them and say woo boy that could be a big one. Obviously getting near or inside of D7 you want more fruit from the models but the setup is certainly there for 2-3 opportunities anyone of which could be large. I will say this as well we all remember and love to run analogs of the supportive patterns that hit by I guarantee you that there are good patterns on paper that missed that most don't remember the missed.

I know it has already been said by you and @griteater and others, but for RDU typically once we get a -NAO established it's on the backend where they do best. We really want the trough and cold air in place, and then for another spoke of vorticity to rotate around the TPV and hopefully interact with something in the southern stream (for a big dog).

 

[SD]

Here are some examples

Big Miller a signal on the euro


Overrunning/low amp waveon the euro

Overrunning/low amp x2 on the cmc



Miller a on the gfs


Obviously these worked out poorly on the 12z runs for most of us but we aren't the far off and at 6+ days a few relatively subtle changes at this lead time drastically changes sensible impact

 

[1300m]

Here are some examples

Big Miller a signal on the euro
View attachment 141201

Overrunning/low amp waveon the euroView attachment 141202

Overrunning/low amp x2 on the cmc
View attachment 141204
View attachment 141205

Miller a on the gfs
View attachment 141206

Obviously these worked out poorly on the 12z runs for most of us but we aren't the far off and at 6+ days a few relatively subtle changes at this lead time drastically changes sensible impact

Based on my observations the past couple years, I wouldn't even want the ops showing a perfect solution this far out. Some of those solutions are just about right where you'd want them for this delta from verification. I probably like the first one the best - speed up that open southern wave and sharpen the western trough a tad and let those two streams meet and dance over the Mississippi.

 

[SD]

Based on my observations the past couple years, I wouldn't even want the ops showing a perfect solution this far out. Some of those solutions are just about right where you'd want them for this delta from verification. I probably like the first one the best - speed up that open southern wave and sharpen the western trough a tad and let those two streams meet and dance over the Mississippi.

I do wonder if the models are placing too much emphasis on the vortices across Southern Canada and shearing everything S in the relatively steep height gradient so as we go forward in time we will see more consolidated energy across the conus

 

[Rain Cold]

I do wonder if the models are placing too much emphasis on the vortices across Southern Canada and shearing everything S in the relatively steep height gradient so as we go forward in time we will see more consolidated energy across the conus

One of the things that I've noticed through the years (and this isn't situation specific - meaning, it may be of little value in this particular setup or may not apply at all) is that way out in time, say, around D10, models show a robust wave that generates a fantasy storm, and then they shear it apart in the D4-7ish range, and then bring it back. When they never show it to begin with, that's a bit more of a red flag for there eventually being no system at all.

I don't know why this is but it may have something to do with waves traveling over data voids or something of that nature. It's just an anecdotal observation.

 

[deltadog03]

One of the things that I've noticed through the years (and this isn't situation specific - meaning, it may be of little value in this particular setup or may not apply at all) is that way out in time, say, around D10, models show a robust wave that generates a fantasy storm, and then they shear it apart in the D4-7ish range, and then bring it back. When they never show it to begin with, that's a bit more of a red flag for there eventually being no system at all.

I don't know why this is but it may have something to do with waves traveling over data voids or something of that nature. It's just an anecdotal observation.

You are not wrong....GFS is super notorious for this. Dr. NO does it as well.

 

[deltadog03]

Here are some examples

Big Miller a signal on the euro
View attachment 141201

Overrunning/low amp waveon the euroView attachment 141202

Overrunning/low amp x2 on the cmc
View attachment 141204
View attachment 141205

Miller a on the gfs
View attachment 141206

Obviously these worked out poorly on the 12z runs for most of us but we aren't the far off and at 6+ days a few relatively subtle changes at this lead time drastically changes sensible impact

Great post! That was really good, and I wonder how much we really just don't know outside of 5 days. I mean, what if you are right and the TPV doesn't shear a bunch out or, the PAC and that energy can break free and send something down the west and then out..I think there is ALWAYS a 1st storm, (usually gets sacrificed) a 2nd, that produces over the South..mainly west and the caboose that really has a shot to collapse the whole pattern and then flush out the cold for now. **That caboose** if my theory is right would be coming down the west coast before the Canada gets warm again. *that post I circled the area*

 

[Stormdoc]

Another close call on todays 18Z GFS that would just need some minor modifications

 

[SD]

Dual jet belt breaker

 

[SD]

Let me cook

 

[CaryWx]

Dual jet belt breaker View attachment 141234

 

[WSW]

 

[Chazwin]

I just realized how far south the 12z EURO pushes the cold air next week. It has Orlando with a low of 28 next Saturday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Eqtrl shifted jet > -WPO > +NAMT > +NAO and return of +TNH (Hudson bay vortex) > quick warmup across the eastern US > retrograding -WPO ridge to Siberia > high descends into Eastern Asia (+EAMT) > added momentum to the pacific jet > jet extension to around Hawaii and resultant +PNA/Aleutian low > MJO reaches western pacific by then

Think the bigger question is, do we undercut the +PNA ridge via the subtropical jet stream ? If we do, we would probably activate another -NAO via breaking and persisting southern waves eventually bombing out as they they reach the Atlantic
Another thing that could happen to is we stay with +NAO due to going crazy and poleward with the western ridge which would induce continued +NAMT and encourage the main TPV lobe to sit around Hudson Bay/Baffin bay, sort of like 2022 and result in a hostile tropospheric pattern for blocking, even with a weakened strat PV. That’s my biggest “concern”

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[SD]

Dear server please survive the next few gfs frames. Thanks!

 

[Carolina Sky]

One of the things that I've noticed through the years (and this isn't situation specific - meaning, it may be of little value in this particular setup or may not apply at all) is that way out in time, say, around D10, models show a robust wave that generates a fantasy storm, and then they shear it apart in the D4-7ish range, and then bring it back. When they never show it to begin with, that's a bit more of a red flag for there eventually being no system at all.

I don't know why this is but it may have something to do with waves traveling over data voids or something of that nature. It's just an anecdotal observation.

Tale as old as time.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[TheBatman]

Dear server please survive the next few gfs frames. Thanks!

Haha. Part 2 of storms. Lol