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Pattern Jammin January 2024

I’m having a real hard time believing that this cold stretch will be mostly dry like what’s being depicted right now on most Operationals. The STJ has been raging as of late and now it’s going to completely shut down??? Call me skeptical, I believe a couple of systems will occur and they’ll show up quick when the short range models get into play. Maybe I’m being a bit of a wish caster right now but something has got to happen.
 
LukeBarrette said:
I’m having a real hard time believing that this cold stretch will be mostly dry like what’s being depicted right now on most Operationals. The STJ has been raging as of late and now it’s going to completely shut down??? Call me skeptical, I believe a couple of systems will occur and they’ll show up quick when the short range models get into play. Maybe I’m being a bit of a wish caster right now but something has got to happen.
Click to expand...
No, I agree with you. You are not a wishcaster in your point. All the models are struggling at this point with this "pattern change." I think by Friday 0z runs we will start hinting or actually seeing some nice hits almost boardwide. The cold is coming for sure and STJ is on steroids. We are in this but just need to let the models come to Jesus collectively and bring the goods??
 
^ As Kylo mentions, we still have an 'escape hatch' problem where waves / storms that amplify are allowed to run inland of the coast & be too warm

Here is 5-day pattern avg for Jan 16-21 where the center of the low anomaly / TPV under the block is north of the Great Lakes
5zzh8Ew.png


And during that time, the mean sfc high placement is just east of the Rockies (too far west)
gPxEX3j.png


And it looks like when the low anomaly does progress east, it's kind of a last gasp of the cold air swinging thru.

As a comparison, here is the pattern from mid-Dec to mid-Jan in 2010-2011. So, that's a better location of the TPV up under the block there off the NE coast - it's farther to the SE compared to what we have now, which of course suppresses the pattern to the south more and doesn't allow storms to easily amplify and run inland of the coast.
Wxc0QVw.png


With just the shear amount of cold air spilling down to our NW, we have a shot here, but in no way would it be fair to call this a great pattern. I wonder if our best chance wouldn't be from a sort of late blooming system along the coast like some have mentioned as that would give us a better shot with cold air on the NW side.
 
griteater said:
^ As Kylo mentions, we still have an 'escape hatch' problem where waves / storms that amplify are allowed to run inland of the coast & be too warm

Here is 5-day pattern avg for Jan 16-21 where the center of the low anomaly / TPV under the block is north of the Great Lakes
5zzh8Ew.png


And during that time, the mean sfc high placement is just east of the Rockies (too far west)
gPxEX3j.png


And it looks like when the low anomaly does progress east, it's kind of a last gasp of the cold air swinging thru.

As a comparison, here is the pattern from mid-Dec to mid-Jan in 2010-2011. So, that's a better location of the TPV up under the block there off the NE coast - it's farther to the SE compared to what we have now, which of course suppresses the pattern to the south more and doesn't allow storms to easily amplify and run inland of the coast.
Wxc0QVw.png


With just the shear amount of cold air spilling down to our NW, we have a shot here, but in no way would it be fair to call this a great pattern. I wonder if our best chance wouldn't be from a sort of late blooming system along the coast like some have mentioned as that would give us a better shot with cold air on the NW side.
Click to expand...
Ahh, the good ole "Pattern Relaxer" surprise!
 
griteater said:
^ As Kylo mentions, we still have an 'escape hatch' problem where waves / storms that amplify are allowed to run inland of the coast & be too warm

Here is 5-day pattern avg for Jan 16-21 where the center of the low anomaly / TPV under the block is north of the Great Lakes
5zzh8Ew.png


And during that time, the mean sfc high placement is just east of the Rockies (too far west)
gPxEX3j.png


And it looks like when the low anomaly does progress east, it's kind of a last gasp of the cold air swinging thru.

As a comparison, here is the pattern from mid-Dec to mid-Jan in 2010-2011. So, that's a better location of the TPV up under the block there off the NE coast - it's farther to the SE compared to what we have now, which of course suppresses the pattern to the south more and doesn't allow storms to easily amplify and run inland of the coast.
Wxc0QVw.png


With just the shear amount of cold air spilling down to our NW, we have a shot here, but in no way would it be fair to call this a great pattern. I wonder if our best chance wouldn't be from a sort of late blooming system along the coast like some have mentioned as that would give us a better shot with cold air on the NW side.
Click to expand...

Thanks Grit. So let me get educated here please and make sure i have this right. We need the the TPV to be further east, so the confluence between the blocking ridge and the TPV feed south further east, over the Carolinas, rather than over the Mississippi River as shown. That allows high pressure to flow down further east, and keeps the storm track to our south.

As shown, the cold is muted because the TPV is too far west, and still allows cutters, once they gets east past the confluence over the Mississippi. Is that generally correct? Thanks.
 
Unfortunately the Canadian is garbage when it comes to modeled surface temps; has a terrible cold bias. I also notice a significant difference b/w the GFS and GEFS.

No way TN is going to be teens below zero.

1704907894270.png

GEFS has a much more reasonable solution:

1704907997544.png

This is really just marginal cold for us and keeps the bulk of the cold West of the Apps. I know that's a shocker.
 
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