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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
OkThat there is a set-up for a SENC Special, flizzard
NCSNOW
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At the Packfan98 Metropolitan area we have received 4.15 today and still spitting the liquid at us.
8+ in December and we are right at 6 inch mark for January. We have received close to 25% of our annual rainfall average in under a month.
And the 0 accumulation snowfall record continues, despite averaging Below normal temp wise for Met winter so far.
8+ in December and we are right at 6 inch mark for January. We have received close to 25% of our annual rainfall average in under a month.
And the 0 accumulation snowfall record continues, despite averaging Below normal temp wise for Met winter so far.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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May have been the most boring 18z GFS run I have ever seen.
Really really like this timeframe. Cold settled in across the entire SE. western ridge spike. northern stream trough slipping south as the block retrogrades, just gotta get a decent southern stream wave or turn the corner with some northern stream. Nothing huge showing up right now, but it’s a really favorable pattern right before a transition. But imho if there’s a look everybody scores, it’s here. Hope to see some operational runs start showing something or better ens runs at the surface
griteater
Member
In contrast, I thought the GEFS run was a pretty good one. Cold air setup is improved. Just need to find us a shortwave to sharpen at the right time at the base of the trough
These are comparison loops of today's 18z run vs yesterday's
That is bloody beautiful.
Yep. The cold that’s in place here will be comparable to January 2022. You can already see the energy in the southern plains. Got much stronger Atlantic confluence this time as well which would prevent cutting. Won’t be long before a OP model shows a fantasy storm from this. Question this time is the S/W itself more so then anything, the cold is there
Also we’re going to continue to see snow pack building over the northeast this week. Probably more so than what we saw in January 2022
Itryatgolf
Member
Make no mistake, it going to get cold! Cpc highlights it well
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Gulf looks active with TPV nearby next week. 00z GFS going for that late bloomer look again here just under 200hr
General setup is still there. Need to get some good high pressure to filter in out ahead of our low development. Checks a couple boxes though 
setup like this we really need to sharpen that western ridge and get that piece of energy to dig down out of Idaho and go negative sooner or close off
For the past month or more we’ve had storm after storm ride right through the southeast and now the low is just gonna form drift out to sea? I’m shocked.
GFS showing back to back opportunities/favorable pattern then a big bowling ball about to enter the US just south of Baja with cold air still hanging around. Like @Myfrotho704_ said earlier the northern stream seems very active for a Niño so the east coast could mess around and luck into a phase later this month if the southern stream keeps it up
Let me take a guess. The northeast?
Yeah no shot. SER screaming. Not that it matters anyway because it’s out there and will never happen anyway. I just think it’s cool
nice little pattern coming
the risk is that the PV shreds everything apart. little impulses that would have a chance to be a cute event in other setups don't have a chance here. everyone thinks "suppression" here but it's less that and moreso these shortwaves not getting a chance to dig and slow down a hair. a strengthening surface low has a symbiotic relationship with a shortwave (surface WAA pumps the ridge, surface CAA strengthens the trough, in response shortwave gets stronger, means better lift, means stronger LLC. positive feedback, etc...) and that can't happen if the shortwave is consistently outrunning the low
as others have mentioned the remedy is a stouter, taller western ridge that would force waves to dig more. or honestly.. a little more amplification in general would be nice. this broad trough is cool in theory but doesn't really provide any great mechanisms to create qpf and spur cyclone development. that's an issue and with such a lauded pattern... would be nice to get a 6-10 incher across the i-85 corridor at like hour 300, you know? just ground truth that it's a fruitful pattern? something that doesn't just look like a virga storm?
good news is that there's still a lot of time on the clock. so here's the trend for the day 7.5 gfs. pick out our storm. you can't? exactly. models don't have a handle on this yet (i wouldn't expect them to) and still plenty of time for a consolidated shortwave with better tilt to come along and take advantage of things. just hoping waiting for that isn't a fools errand
the risk is that the PV shreds everything apart. little impulses that would have a chance to be a cute event in other setups don't have a chance here. everyone thinks "suppression" here but it's less that and moreso these shortwaves not getting a chance to dig and slow down a hair. a strengthening surface low has a symbiotic relationship with a shortwave (surface WAA pumps the ridge, surface CAA strengthens the trough, in response shortwave gets stronger, means better lift, means stronger LLC. positive feedback, etc...) and that can't happen if the shortwave is consistently outrunning the low
as others have mentioned the remedy is a stouter, taller western ridge that would force waves to dig more. or honestly.. a little more amplification in general would be nice. this broad trough is cool in theory but doesn't really provide any great mechanisms to create qpf and spur cyclone development. that's an issue and with such a lauded pattern... would be nice to get a 6-10 incher across the i-85 corridor at like hour 300, you know? just ground truth that it's a fruitful pattern? something that doesn't just look like a virga storm?
good news is that there's still a lot of time on the clock. so here's the trend for the day 7.5 gfs. pick out our storm. you can't? exactly. models don't have a handle on this yet (i wouldn't expect them to) and still plenty of time for a consolidated shortwave with better tilt to come along and take advantage of things. just hoping waiting for that isn't a fools errand