Pattern Jammin January 2024

[Myfrotho704_]

Please post in the new dedicated STORM THREAD

Could you do me a solid and move it I’ll include premium top quality precip panels if you do

 

[NoSnowATL]

Looks good for TN.

 

[griteater]

EPS 3-run temp trend for 5-day period Jan 17-22

 

[griteater]

Euro Control gives it a try with a weak system on Jan 20

 

[SnowNiner]

Euro Control gives it a try with a weak system on Jan 20

Seems like this is the Carolinas last chance before the anticipated reshuffle prior to Feb. Unless the models are too quick to break down the blocking.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Seems like this is the Carolinas last chance before the anticipated reshuffle prior to Feb. Unless the models are too quick to break down the blocking.

View attachment 140930

Damn you can already see the Aleutian low/pending +PNA setting up. Fab Feb baby

 

[griteater]

Seems like this is the Carolinas last chance before the anticipated reshuffle prior to Feb. Unless the models are too quick to break down the blocking.

View attachment 140930

Agree after Jan 22 or so

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Classic precursor to a long lived +PNA pattern with the pacific jet extending to Hawaii

 

[KyloG]

Seems like this is the Carolinas last chance before the anticipated reshuffle prior to Feb. Unless the models are too quick to break down the blocking.

View attachment 140930

Pattern is going to have to shuffle through mjo ph5-6 before end of January.

 

[KyloG]

Pattern supports it...strong signal for the 17th

 

[SnowNiner]

Pattern is going to have to shuffle through mjo ph5-6 before end of January.

Yeah, but I was hoping the monumental -nao would hang on through it, keeping us in the game into February. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, but maybe the models are rushing its demise.

Would be great if it hung on until the pacific reshuffle and we have our pna. Too much to ask? Lol.

 

[Rain Cold]

Classic precursor to a long lived +PNA pattern with the pacific jet extending to Hawaii View attachment 140934View attachment 140935

Get some cross-polar flow over the top and we'll be in business.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS bringing the mjo wave towards the pacific/whem at the end.

 

[KyloG]

Yeah, but I was hoping the monumental -nao would hang on through it, keeping us in the game into February. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, but maybe the models are rushing its demise.

Would be great if it hung on until the pacific reshuffle and we have our pna. Too much to ask? Lol.

I would be surprised if we don't see blocking come right back, assuming we see it breakdown between 22-30th.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah, but I was hoping the monumental -nao would hang on through it, keeping us in the game into February. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, but maybe the models are rushing its demise.

Would be great if it hung on until the pacific reshuffle and we have our pna. Too much to ask? Lol.

The process of retrograding the AK block towards Siberia will most likely initially kill it. But we’re at a stratospheric point where a wave break could pop one off real easily. In fact the weeklies immediately bring back a -NAO in tandem with a +PNA. Once the pacific trough comes back and starts feeding in southern stream waves that amplify/wavebreak during the jet extension, it’ll be back

 

[Chazwin]

Maybe we can trend this to a cold air damming event in the Carolinas. 50/50 low kinda sneaking in there View attachment 140897 if we continue to slow things down View attachment 140895View attachment 140899

The 500mb analog composite has some very good dates in there for CAD.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[accu35]

I can see this working out except SC

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

EPS bringing the mjo wave towards the pacific/whem at the end.View attachment 140939View attachment 140940

ECMWF MJO forecast

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk

 

[J.C.]

The Apps continue to hang up the cold. The Lake Hartwell warm middle finger is holding strong. 40 in Anderson while 19 in Huntsville.