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Pattern Jammin January 2024

im not impressed with any of the 12z model suites. Hope this is not the beginng of a trend
There not all that bad, your gonna get different outlooks on runs. Today may show less precip and tonight or tomorrow it could go all Boom for your area. We still have plenty of time to approve
 
sfct-imp.conus.png

Delayed but not denied.
 
Looks like it tries towards the end of the run for something, but @240, it's less than meaningless.

Honestly a more realistic depiction of what could occur than what was popping up last night
 
This is 'dangerous' long range type stuff of course, but yeah, high chance that we have a big cutter Jan 12-13. If it's going to be wintry with the next storm after that in the Jan 15-16 timeframe, I'd say it favors the S AR to E TN area (along that line, and a bit south and north of that line). Jan 18-20 is the timeframe that I think offers the most potential for areas deeper into the southeast.
Don't think anything has really changed in the big picture as others have stated. We gotta push lobes of that TPV farther east in SE Canada in order to get the cold air boundary farther SE, then we may have a chance or 2 in the Jan 18-22 timeframe. Don't think this is a hog wild great pattern or anything, but it could produce given the amount of cold air positioned to the NW.
 
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