chapelhillwx
Member
I’m taking 74 after Murphy over to Andrews
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
As much as I'd like the EMCF solution to verify verbatim, what we do not want to see is that ULL get buried in the SW like the GFS has shown for at least a few runs now. That would delay or kill any return to a much colder pattern for the rest of January at a minimum.
The GFS has support from its ensembles and to an extent the operational Canadian. Anxiously awaiting the EPS run.
The GFS has support from its ensembles and to an extent the operational Canadian. Anxiously awaiting the EPS run.
We drove to TR that morning and they had about 6”. I got a backend dusting in Simpsonville FML
AJ1013
Member
Sideways rain here. Wind howling out of the west at 40mph. Pretty sick front.
I am thinking the ec control is about to go boom
edit: just a little too warm
edit: just a little too warm
weatherfide
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
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The 12Z 1/13/2023 EPS has plenty of members dropping the trough into the SW, based on the 500mb anomalies. My call to cancel winter in Atlanta is looking really good now. California will certainly be out of drought conditions by mid-February. The Sierra's are going to have three years worth of ice reserves for them at this rate!
Everyone talks about their own gradient,
The gradient exist in this region for several reasons,
Not the least of which is clearly elevation.
This is something we were talking about yesterday. Even with the way the GEFS wants to dump and sit that energy in the southwest and with flexing the SER, it’s keeping high pressure moving along the Canadian border… this is still a set up that can produce winter storms across the southeast.. especially TN, KY, northern MS and AL, and then CAD set ups east of the mountains in the Carolinas and northern GA…. again this would be favored to Miller Bs like you said and more geared ice/sleet with FGEN forced snowfall on the front end.
Edit: and just to add this is something that would also be favored during the last 10 days of January as the MJO will be going through phase 1/2
ATLwxfan
Member
The 12Z GFS is full speed ahead with a cancelling winter for many of us. Upper 70’s into the Carolinas late in the month. I know it’s the GFS but I’m inclined to believe every warm solution.
I also believe any ULL forecasted to sit over the SW. Always delivers. Always.
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Trust me, a lot will change between now and then.
Snownut
Member
Definitely moisture making it over the mountains in upstate near Lake Keowee near hwy 11. 45° and had light sleet and flurries.
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I’m as inclined to believe a warm GFS solution 2 weeks out as I am to believe the GFS showing a southeast blizzard 2 weeks out. As far the ULL sitting in the SW…that’s not a killer for cold and storm chances when you have high pressures moving across the northern tier like the GEFS showed.
Winter cancel uncancel 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's going to be a lot more where this came from as we enter February.
Pretty decent light snow showers going on here, sleet mixing in.
Just say no to GFS and its buried ULL into the SW.
BTW, I'm old enough to remember when failure to launch out of the SW was a Euro thing. Seems the roles have reversed lol.
I see the EPS took a nod in this direction at 12Z. That stuff needs to stop lol.
Been in downtown ATL all day. Had several showers of rain, sleet, and flurries.
Heelyes
Member
Impossible, winter was cancelled weeks ago in Atlanta
That is less than ideal. Considering hanging it up myself if this verifies. 