Pattern Jammin January 2023

[Webberweather53]

I see the EPS took a nod in this direction at 12Z. That stuff needs to stop lol.

The GEFS could be fast, but that kind of pattern is going to show up sooner rather than later, esp when you get a big -EAMT like this & you stick the MJO in the eastern hemisphere again to sustain this jet retraction into early-mid February. To top it off, we're in a La Nina & nearly 75% of La Nina Februarys are above average in NC. Throw in an unfavorable MJO + AGW on top of that & you're probably talking about at least an 80-90% chance of a mild February in the SE US :/

The chips have been stacked against us for quite some time for all the above reasons & I see some are just finally realizing this.

Not too surprised to see the -PNA appearing in the models during week 2-3 & it's generally legit, although I know some folks in here will probably hold out hope for it to go away or get angry/mock me (again) for just providing my objective take on this pattern. I'll do my best to ignore those folks from here on out because it's pretty clear there are a lot of people here that value what I have to say, even if it's not always what they want to hear. I know it can get really annoying to hear the same thing everyday, esp if you hate me talking about a mild pattern every day, but that's because I am a climate dynamicist at heart & I really love to look at & talk about the subseasonal/week-to-week range every single day. (yes, I don't have a life, but spending this kind of time studying/practicing anything is how you can get good at it).

The only way we can really avoid this fate of -PNA is to get a huge -EPO w/ a ridge centered over-north of Alaska, but that could easily make the SE US ridge even worse because we're entering the part of the winter where the wavelengths shorten & the downstream trough from -EPO is usually further west over the Plains + Lakes. It's the kind of pattern where you'll probably be mild-unusually warm overall, with a couple really intense shots of arctic air potentially interspersed between. There's at least a really small chance of something legit showing up here. The pattern we've had the last few weeks really had no chance at all to produce a big storm because there was no cold air anywhere in sight.

If we hit the accelerator on this Eastern Hemisphere MJO event & the SSWE forecast to occur in early February actually propagates down into the lower stratosphere + impacts the troposphere, then I could see March giving us better looks for wintry weather than either January or February.

The SubX multi-model ensemble keeps the El Nino gravy train going into mid-late January w/ some semblance of a +PNA. Not a great pattern verbatim though, but probably the best we're gonna see before this Aleutian trough retrogrades even more & allows the -PNA/SE ridge to become re-established sometime near the end of January or early February.

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[WEATHERBOYROY]

I'm not too disappointed....EPS is still trending a little cooler day 13-15.tHE 850S ON THE DAY 9 storm look worse. Still not awful for the western SE. A Lot can change? if the eps were like the geps, I would be pretty excited about possibilities.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Per @Parker it’s puking snow up at Ober now

 

[weatherfide]

The GEFS could be fast, but that kind of pattern is going to show up sooner rather than later, esp when you get a big -EAMT like this & you stick the MJO in the eastern hemisphere again to sustain this jet retraction into early-mid February. To top it off, we're in a La Nina & nearly 75% of La Nina Februarys are above average in NC. Throw in an unfavorable MJO + AGW on top of that & you're probably talking about at least an 80-90% chance of a mild February in the SE US :/

The chips have been stacked against us for quite some time for all the above reasons & I see some are just finally realizing this.

Not too surprised to see the -PNA appearing in the models during week 2-3 & it's generally legit, although I know some folks in here will probably hold out hope for it to go away or get angry/mock me (again) for just providing my objective take on this pattern. I'll do my best to ignore those folks from here on out because it's pretty clear there are a lot of people here that value what I have to say, even if it's not always what they want to hear. I know it can get really annoying to hear the same thing everyday, esp if you hate me talking about a mild pattern every day, but that's because I am a climate dynamicist at heart & I really love to look at & talk about the subseasonal/week-to-week range every single day. (yes, I don't have a life, but spending this kind of time studying/practicing anything is how you can get good at it).

The only way we can really avoid this fate of -PNA is to get a huge -EPO w/ a ridge centered over-north of Alaska, but that could easily make the SE US ridge even worse because we're entering the part of the winter where the wavelengths shorten & the downstream trough from -EPO is usually further west over the Plains + Lakes. It's the kind of pattern where you'll probably be mild-unusually warm overall, with a couple really intense shots of arctic air potentially interspersed between. There's at least a really small chance of something legit showing up here. The pattern we've had the last few weeks really had no chance at all to produce a big storm because there was no cold air anywhere in sight.

If we hit the accelerator on this Eastern Hemisphere MJO event & the SSWE forecast to occur in early February actually propagates down into the lower stratosphere + impacts the troposphere, then I could see March giving us better looks for wintry weather than either January or February.

I guess the positive here is... my heating bill will be lower.

 

[Parker]

Per @Parker it’s puking snow up at Ober now

Can confirm this. I sent Jimmy some crazy videos of it hammering.

 

[NE Ga Wx]

Not expecting to see any flakes but it’s snowing here. There are snow showers in ne ga surprisingly

 

[Stevo24]

I thought we were supposed to be torching right now. You can imaging my surprise right now as I’m wearing shorts and a tshirt. It’s very chilly.

 

[Webberweather53]

I thought we were supposed to be torching right now. You can imaging my surprise right now as I’m wearing shorts and a tshirt. It’s very chilly.

It gets cold in winter, imagine that.

For most places in the SE US, this January is top 5 warmest on record thus far with really no slow down in sight. It'll probably get even anomalously warmer from here.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Today was the first negative departure day for DFW since 12/27, a whopping -1°F...

 

[BIG FROSTY]

My first flakes of the winter is falling..... It's been a great winter so far!

 

[Rosie]

Not expecting to see any flakes but it’s snowing here. There are snow showers in ne ga surprisingly

Deck covered and still light snow?

 

[Webberweather53]

I think a lot of people tend to forget or just don't realize that the lead up periods to sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWEs) are usually warm/mild in the eastern US because Scandinavian blocking (which precedes most SSWEs) actually teleconnects with a SE ridge.

This year doesn't seem any different to me in that regard. Hopefully, things get turned around in late February or March.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Beech is getting punished right now

 

[griteater]

The GEFS could be fast, but that kind of pattern is going to show up sooner rather than later, esp when you get a big -EAMT like this & you stick the MJO in the eastern hemisphere again to sustain this jet retraction into early-mid February. To top it off, we're in a La Nina & nearly 75% of La Nina Februarys are above average in NC. Throw in an unfavorable MJO + AGW on top of that & you're probably talking about at least an 80-90% chance of a mild February in the SE US :/

The chips have been stacked against us for quite some time for all the above reasons & I see some are just finally realizing this.

Not too surprised to see the -PNA appearing in the models during week 2-3 & it's generally legit, although I know some folks in here will probably hold out hope for it to go away or get angry/mock me (again) for just providing my objective take on this pattern. I'll do my best to ignore those folks from here on out because it's pretty clear there are a lot of people here that value what I have to say, even if it's not always what they want to hear. I know it can get really annoying to hear the same thing everyday, esp if you hate me talking about a mild pattern every day, but that's because I am a climate dynamicist at heart & I really love to look at & talk about the subseasonal/week-to-week range every single day. (yes, I don't have a life, but spending this kind of time studying/practicing anything is how you can get good at it).

The only way we can really avoid this fate of -PNA is to get a huge -EPO w/ a ridge centered over-north of Alaska, but that could easily make the SE US ridge even worse because we're entering the part of the winter where the wavelengths shorten & the downstream trough from -EPO is usually further west over the Plains + Lakes. It's the kind of pattern where you'll probably be mild-unusually warm overall, with a couple really intense shots of arctic air potentially interspersed between. There's at least a really small chance of something legit showing up here. The pattern we've had the last few weeks really had no chance at all to produce a big storm because there was no cold air anywhere in sight.

If we hit the accelerator on this Eastern Hemisphere MJO event & the SSWE forecast to occur in early February actually propagates down into the lower stratosphere + impacts the troposphere, then I could see March giving us better looks for wintry weather than either January or February.

Eric - it looks like our best shot is going to be when this upcoming Pac jet extension pushes out to its max. Euro and CMC suites would at least give us a shot when this occurs in the Day 10-12 timeframe. GFS suite looks rough. If the GFS ends up being correct with never placing some troughing in the east over the next 2 weeks, gonna have to start calling it the new Dr No as it was never on the 50/50 low idea for today’s storm either.

And yeah, thereafter for end of Jan and into early Feb, it sure looks like the Indian Ocean / La Niña machine is going to take the reigns (-PNA / SE ridge)…would be a good time for western skiing actually as this go around it would be colder out west (drier snow/ more powder compared to the current Super Nino regime we will be coming out of).

Looking ahead, I’m thinking we will have maybe one last shot at winter (broadly speaking pattern wise) in 2nd half of Feb and into early March as maybe the MJO pushes out into the Pacific again. Dr Paul Roundy commented recently that his Experimental MJO Forecasting Tool has performed well this winter with capturing pattern changes. It updates daily and has been showing a colder look going into 2nd half of Feb (sample images below for Feb 20 & 26)

Roundy MJO Forecasting Tool Link: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

 

[Webberweather53]

Eric - it looks like our best shot is going to be when this upcoming Pac jet extension pushes out to its max. Euro and CMC suites would at least give us a shot when this occurs in the Day 10-12 timeframe. GFS suite looks rough. If the GFS ends up being correct with never placing some troughing in the east over the next 2 weeks, gonna have to start calling it the new Dr No as it was never on the 50/50 low idea for today’s storm either.

And yeah, thereafter for end of Jan and into early Feb, it sure looks like the Indian Ocean / La Niña machine is going to take the reigns (-PNA / SE ridge)…would be a good time for western skiing actually as this go around it would be colder out west (drier snow/ more powder compared to the current Super Nino regime we will be coming out of).

Looking ahead, I’m thinking we will have maybe one last shot at winter (broadly speaking pattern wise) in 2nd half of Feb and into early March as maybe the MJO pushes out into the Pacific again. Dr Paul Roundy commented recently that his Experimental MJO Forecasting Tool has performed well this winter with capturing pattern changes. It updates daily and has been showing a colder look going into 2nd half of Feb (sample images below for Feb 20 & 26)

Roundy MJO Forecasting Tool Link: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
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I tend to agree with your take on late Feb-early Mar, esp if the SSWE actually impacts the troposphere in a meaningful way.

Oth, the Pacific jet is in full-scale retraction the next few weeks (which is why the GOA ridge is showing up again), I don't see any legitimate extensions over the next few-several weeks to restore the Aleutian trough.

 

[griteater]

I tend to agree with your take on late Feb-early Mar, esp if the SSWE actually impacts the troposphere in a meaningful way.

Oth, the Pacific jet is in full-scale retraction the next few weeks (which is why the GOA ridge is showing up again), I don't see any legitimate extensions over the next few-several weeks to restore the Aleutian trough.

‘Legitimate’ is the key word ha. There’s an extension that yields ridging just off the west coast, but yeah, it looks like it’s going to run out of gas quick

 

[jrips27]

Worth the trip

 

[griteater]

I think a lot of people tend to forget or just don't realize that the lead up periods to sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWEs) are usually warm/mild in the eastern US because Scandinavian blocking (which precedes most SSWEs) actually teleconnects with a SE ridge.

This year doesn't seem any different to me in that regard. Hopefully, things get turned around in late February or March.

Interestingly enough, the GFS is the most aggressive right now with the Scandinavian ridging. So, the GFS sucks for eastern cold right now, but is hitting the Strat PV the hardest

 

[Webberweather53]

‘Legitimate’ is the key word ha. There’s an ext that yields ridging just off the west coast, but yeah, it looks like it’s going to run out of gas quick

This week's big -EAMT event is mostly to blame for that & the signals for this retraction have been there for a while now imho. Don't see much (if any) positive torque in the coming week or two to offset it because of all the +SLPa west of the Tibetan Plateau over central Eurasia offsetting intrusions of +SLPa into China. Even then, the Pacific jet is certainly going to be retracted and shifted poleward, the most favorable combo for -PNA, & the MJO + ENSO are going to reinforce this in general. I don't think we truly meaningfully break out of that N Pacific jet regime until the MJO comes back around again to the West Pacific-Western Hemisphere again sometime in late February or perhaps March.

 

[Webberweather53]

Interestingly enough, the GFS is the most aggressive right now with the Scandinavian ridging. So, the GFS sucks for eastern cold right now, but is hitting the Strat PV the hardest

Makes sense. These lead up periods into SSWEs often get overlooked (for good reason) and honestly can be pretty brutal if you're a snow weenie in eastern N America, unless you have a super favorable tropospheric circulation pattern for immediate tropospheric impacts + stratosphere-troposphere coupling (like we did in 2021 where the -NAO was already well established & got anchored in place + persisted much longer because of the SSWE).

We've seen a lot of Nina winters recently (2017-18 being the one that sticks out the most to me, although 2016-17 is a good example too, as is those Nina winters in the 1970s (1970-71, 1971-72, & 1973-74)) where after a mild February, we came back w/ snow opportunities in March. Very plausible this year.