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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Skeptical because that was one giant shift on the EPS but something to watch, because these NPAC dominated patterns are far more volatile than your +EPO ones. Not falling for it right now, but that’s a step you want to see
 
rburrel2 said:
Feb 2014... one of many epic screw jobs for Oconee/Pickens county in SC. Utter devastation, lol.View attachment 130979
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That was a fun couple of days here. I can remember driving north towards Greenville late that night and being about the only car on the road. Ripping. Roads were a mess and plows weren’t able to keep up. Good times
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That April freeze is always a guarantee, unlike nicky
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Nothing is guaranteed in life. I'll take my chances at a greater crop yield if this look continues into mid-February. I'm about 60-70% confident Above Normal Temperature's holds, we will see. Arctic sea ice is below last year and 2012(record minimum).
PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20230121.png

1674419991991.png
 
severestorm said:
Nothing is guaranteed in life. I'll take my chances at a greater crop yield if this look continues into mid-February. I'm about 60-70% confident Above Normal Temperature's holds, we will see. Arctic sea ice is below last year and 2012(record minimum).
PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20230121.png

View attachment 130981
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The 2nd worse winter to 2012, 2020, had a record warm January and a warm February and had one the the coldest April's with frosts and a May frost because the TPV visited that early May. Winter temps don’t mean much. Last several years spring has found a way to suck and be cold
 
EmersonGA said:
Never base planting off the reactions of a bunch of weenies.
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This person has a meteorology degree.
He's on here a bunch..
I never want to run someone like that off of this board,
Because he has much more to add than 99% of the posters on this or any board.
He speaks in absolutes based upon analogs & long range modeling.
Which to me is crazy.
 
Billypg70 said:
This person has a meteorology degree.
He's on here a bunch..
I never want to run someone like that off of this board,
Because he has much more to add than 99% of the posters on this or any board.
He speaks in absolutes based upon analogs & long range modeling.
Which to me is crazy.
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Webber's a good asset. Can't thank him enough with his archival of weather events after NCSU and NWS apparently ended that historical partnership which is crazy considering their office is on NCSU's campus.
 
Seeing various CAD solutions over parts of the south/mid Atlantic on the CMC ensemble to varying degrees within 2-3 days of each other in the first few days of February. May end up being nothing, but the key is to get that TPV further east and drive that baroclinic frontal zone further south, which to me would open the door for hopes of winter weather.

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Billypg70 said:
This person has a meteorology degree.
He's on here a bunch..
I never want to run someone like that off of this board,
Because he has much more to add than 99% of the posters on this or any board.
He speaks in absolutes based upon analogs & long range modeling.
Which to me is crazy.
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My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
 
EmersonGA said:
My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
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I'd say most saying winter is over is speaking of sustained cold patterns and winter weather. Anyone who's lived here any length of time knows we have freezes until late March early April
 
EmersonGA said:
My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
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I laugh when I see people talking about pre emergent and growing season. I have been in the turf industry for over 30 years now. Pre Emergent generally goes down Feb in warmer climates that has Bermuda, Zoysia, or centipede turf. Crabgrass does not germinate until ground temps are constant 55 degrees. You can't go by a site that shows ground temps as many are different. Check your own. A light frost will take out young crabgrass easily and I doubt we go rest of winter without another frost in my area.

If you live in where warm season grass is at and you use granular pre emergent then get it out. Granular takes longer to break down. Also keep in mind above average rainfall will leach out your pre emergent quicker which will make less effective and crabgrass will show up in early August. Now back to the Cold Rain.
 
EmersonGA said:
My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
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Just to be clear,
He's definitely an asset.
I want him posting daily regardless if their pro or anti winter weather.
I just hate the cancel winter in mid Dec posts.
IDC what long range modeling nor analogs say.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Never plant until after Easter. Unless you live in Florida and you can plant 365 down here.
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I agree. I never plant my vegetables until after April 15th, otherwise known as the tax deadline for many Americans. My grandfathers who lived in Wilson County and Wayne County in North Carolina usually waited until around May 1st. After getting burned by that May freeze a couple of years ago, I'm hesitant to plant anything until I feel confident that the weather patterns are not advertising anything below 40 degrees for low temperatures.
 
weather bubba said:
I agree. I never plant my vegetables until after April 15th, otherwise known as the tax deadline for many Americans. My grandfathers who lived in Wilson County and Wayne County in North Carolina usually waited until around May 1st. After getting burned by that May freeze a couple of years ago, I'm hesitant to plant anything until I feel confident that the weather patterns are not advertising anything below 40 degrees for low temperatures.
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You could plant on January 1st and harvest before the April freeze. #NinaLife


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