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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Billypg70 said:
I thought about planting my annuals based upon some on this board.
They make it seem as if Winter is dead no more freezing temps nor even frost.
Which is crazy.
Of course this doesn't mean any frozen weather for most.
But at least acknowledge that yes it's going to be warm to very warm but cold temps are not done.
Click to expand...
Yeah planting right now is a terrible idea and I keep seeing a lot about pre emergent season and I wouldnt touch that stuff north of I20 yet and even between I10 and I20 it might be early
 
KyloG said:
Fairly large changes in the modeled pattern over past few runs. ?‍♂️

The GEFS was much colder and the EPS isn’t even close to what it had yesterday.

View attachment 130965
Click to expand...
The best/coldest members take the centroid of the ridge poleward northeast of Alaska
 
Meanwhile back at the ranch, GSP issues winter weather advisory for 2” to 6” of snow for the high country

iNWS Alert

inws.ncep.noaa.gov

224 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could
bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locations along the Tennessee border at
elevations above 4500 feet on the northwest facing slopes could
receive snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. Up to 2 inches will be possible in the valleys.D730437F-882C-420B-8AAD-60A2D9446743.jpeg
 
Every time the cold is on our side of the globe and we get this hudson bay vortex look, we wind up getting lots of fantasy snow and tantalizing modeled arctic outbreaks, but ultimately nothing ever materializes. I know if you look back in history at some major events it can work out quite well, but I swear it's lead to nothing but disappointment ever since I've been model watching.

But I am a weenie so I will eat up any upcoming fantasy snow and remain optimistic that this time it works out in our favor.
 
Billypg70 said:
I thought about planting my annuals based upon some on this board.
They make it seem as if Winter is dead no more freezing temps nor even frost.
Which is crazy.
Of course this doesn't mean any frozen weather for most.
But at least acknowledge that yes it's going to be warm to very warm but cold temps are not done.
Click to expand...
Never base planting off the reactions of a bunch of weenies.
 
Very big difference from yesterday to today on the EPS especially out west .. again tip toeing on the line of absolute garbage to an absolute beauty. Yesterday we leaned towards garbage today back the other way .. who knows but history tells us to lean towards garbage .. it almost makes me think the TPV placement is helping pull the trough axis further east but who knows .. TPVs and their placement can make miracles happen so we will see 1674418154599.gif
 
I think what happens is if you get the true major polar vortex with the coldest air to drift over and just south of Greenland it can set up a dynamite pattern for wintry sort of like the 12z EPS shows.. but ultimately it very rarely drifts over that way, instead it almost always stays farther to the west before drifting back towards the North pole, which leaves us on the wrong side of every storm with all that arctic air just out of reach.
 
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