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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

LATEST FROM NWS BMX
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Zeta Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Birmingham AL AL282020
410 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

ALZ025-281715-
/O.CON.KBMX.TR.A.1028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Shelby-
410 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Columbiana
- Pelham
- Alabaster

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early this evening
until early Thursday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
 
Flash flood watch expanded into western NC and mountains of the upstate. I’m surprised it wasn’t expanded farther than that.
 
Jessy89 said:
Something I noticed on almost every model. It has the strongest winds south east of the center. Even though the center maybe 50-75 miles from some people. They could see stronger winds then they would being right under the center. Is because it’s lopsided?


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gawxnative said:
I believe that is a factor of the rapid speed of the system that will enhance the winds to the right of the center (wind speed + forward speed of system) where near center you will be dealing with only the "true" wind speed. You can see this with fast moving QLCS systems also
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There's that, and per typical with cyclones (tropical or not), the warmer air in the SE quadrant allows the stronger winds to mix down to the surface much easier.
 
VERY NICE CLEARING OF THE EYE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.. WILL HOLD OFF ON POSTING TO SEE IF IT STAYS THAT WAY FOR A BIT
 
Recon marking pressure at 979mb down 3mb from last pass.
 
Gsp should probably do a tropical storm watch/warning just to get buses off the rd. School is open here.


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Jessy89 said:
Gsp should probably do a tropical storm watch/warning just to get buses off the rd. School is open here.


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It’s hard to see the graphic but with the 4am update it looks like they raised the chances of TS force winds in the upstate vs. the previous advisory. They’re probably gonna keep nudging it up today if it keeps strengthening the way it is.
A59FB666-0E9B-4DBA-B652-DF91BD7C9A5F.png
 
Ethan80963 said:
It’s hard to see the graphic but with the 4am update it looks like they raised the chances of TS force winds in the upstate vs. the previous advisory. They’re probably gonna keep nudging it up today if it keeps strengthening the way it is.
View attachment 51203
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Yeah I notice that. My number #1 concern is if there is no tropical storm warning then school won’t close or delay. Models show at least gusts to 50 in the upstate and we are 24hrs out. I really feel schools should at least do a 2hr delay.


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wxdaniel said:
Winds won’t be sustained above Hurricane force. Gusts are a huge possibility. I have never really understood why we issue Tropical Warnings 200 miles inland.


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I suppose for the same reason Lake Effect Snow headlines are issued well inland from the lake. The weather event is associated with a system of tropical origins and characteristics.
 
Honestly I’m not sure why they haven’t issued inland tropical storm warnings for Atlanta. Did they do away with that type of warning?
 
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