Shaggy
Member
The 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.
To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major..
Interesting
The 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.
To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major..
Yeah, definitely can't take our eye off of this one. Euro getting it just west of Bermuda now, weaker system early on further west, slightly stronger HP, less progressive pattern, any slight deviation could help push this a little further westInteresting
That would be a cat2......been awhile....Sandy was in 2012 but didnt land as a cat.Going to shoot northeast like a rocket
It’s a very very small chance this ever hits US but we are approaching the anniversary of Isabel. It managed to landfall despite missing the Herbert Box. The window is quickly going away for a landfall and by Saturday we should know if this could make landfall on Bermuda or not. I sure wouldn’t cancel any beach plans but I would make plans to stay out of the ocean. Below is Isabel becoming annular and overriding all steering influences. Obviously it’s not a true analogue and I wouldn’t be surprised if something like Isabell was a once in a life time track/intensity/etc. View attachment 48244
True but missing the box really cuts down those chances everywhere IMO esp with Florida taking the majority of all storms.I think you’re misconstruing the Herbert Box. It’s only useful for predicting if a strong storm will hit south Florida, not the entire east coast.
...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... |
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 Location: 28.9°N 59.7°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 981 mb Max sustained: 75 mph |