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Tropical Hurricane Paulette

GaWx

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The lower right corner shows some of 92L members. The last two EPS means have shifted a lot to the W fwiw, which means not as strong an OTS recurve chance as earlier EPS runs had been showing:

E3D02A6C-F577-46F8-9A84-45F0479DE4CF.gif
 

Brent

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Looks like a race between this and 93 for Paulette but this has a slight edge in probs

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
northern Leeward Islands continues to get better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Monday
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
 

GaWx

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18Z EPS 144: TD17 is on lower right. Similar to the 6Z EPS, a good number of these aren't clearcut OTS recurves:

EPS18ZInvest92L.png

Edit: As thread starter, you can edit the title.
 

GaWx

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The fact that the NHC forecast track has no NW movement tells me the CONUS needs to keep watching this one closely since NW movement this far east is almost a guarantee of a safe OTS recurve.
 

Brent

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The fact that the NHC forecast track has no NW movement tells me the CONUS needs to keep watching this one closely since NW movement this far east is almost a guarantee of a safe OTS recurve.
Something interesting from the discussion too that it may not even get that far north

Possible track forecast complications could
develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the
depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining
as much latitude as currently indicated.
 

GaWx

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Here on the 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette:

 

ForsythSnow

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Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
 

Henry2326

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Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
Florence bungled around and almost lost its fire a couple of times.
Truly, forecasting it was a disaster.....to the bitter end. EURO said it would go south to Charleston, against the gulf stream, which it didn't do.

1920px-Florence_2018_track.png
 

Shaggy

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Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
Isabel comes to mind as well as it was pretty far north but kept sliding west.
 

wxdaniel

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As I mention in the tropical discussion. The European ridge has been weakening and may allow the ridge of south eastern Canada to slide further to the east. This may cause paulette to loop out to see. It will also cause systems back up the pike to begin pushing more wnw.


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