• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Paulette


Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
 
Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
Florence bungled around and almost lost its fire a couple of times.
Truly, forecasting it was a disaster.....to the bitter end. EURO said it would go south to Charleston, against the gulf stream, which it didn't do.

1920px-Florence_2018_track.png
 
Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.

Isabel comes to mind as well as it was pretty far north but kept sliding west.
 
As I mention in the tropical discussion. The European ridge has been weakening and may allow the ridge of south eastern Canada to slide further to the east. This may cause paulette to loop out to see. It will also cause systems back up the pike to begin pushing more wnw.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are ~31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
 
Last edited:
And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are ~31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
I'm not surprised......too may storms, with too many variables.....the models can barely manage one storm.
 
I’m a bit worried about the “weakening” it’s suppose to do before gaining more strength in the long term. I have seen many storms do that and end up much further west and even scrape the entire east coast.
 
Another oddity with regard to Paulette: although the 12Z CMC ensemble has no member with the wave just off Africa even coming close to the Bahamas and CONUS, it has 4 members (20%) threatening and 2 that hit FL:
 
Last edited:
I have a feeling it’s gonna get well west of Bermuda with each update of the cone. I would go ahead and say waves&rip currents for NC around 60% chance now instead of 0% a few days ago.
 
With that said, it should miss the Herbert Box and likely will recurve at some point...but I think it bares watching more than some are
 
The 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.

To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major..
 
Last edited:
Back
Top