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Tropical Hurricane Paulette

The lower right corner shows some of 92L members. The last two EPS means have shifted a lot to the W fwiw, which means not as strong an OTS recurve chance as earlier EPS runs had been showing:

E3D02A6C-F577-46F8-9A84-45F0479DE4CF.gif
 
Looks like a race between this and 93 for Paulette but this has a slight edge in probs

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
northern Leeward Islands continues to get better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Monday
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
 
18Z EPS 144: TD17 is on lower right. Similar to the 6Z EPS, a good number of these aren't clearcut OTS recurves:

EPS18ZInvest92L.png

Edit: As thread starter, you can edit the title.
 
The fact that the NHC forecast track has no NW movement tells me the CONUS needs to keep watching this one closely since NW movement this far east is almost a guarantee of a safe OTS recurve.
 
GaWx said:
The fact that the NHC forecast track has no NW movement tells me the CONUS needs to keep watching this one closely since NW movement this far east is almost a guarantee of a safe OTS recurve.
Click to expand...

Something interesting from the discussion too that it may not even get that far north

Possible track forecast complications could
develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the
depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining
as much latitude as currently indicated.
 
Here on the 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette:

BrRiLEv.png
 
Henry2326 said:
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Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
Click to expand...
Florence bungled around and almost lost its fire a couple of times.
Truly, forecasting it was a disaster.....to the bitter end. EURO said it would go south to Charleston, against the gulf stream, which it didn't do.

1920px-Florence_2018_track.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Honestly I have to wonder if anyone else is thinking something like Florence here? I mean not identical, but the general path shifts and setup. How similar would this be to Florence aside from the eerily similar timing and placement? Florence was NORTH of Paulette in its current location.
Click to expand...

Isabel comes to mind as well as it was pretty far north but kept sliding west.
 
As I mention in the tropical discussion. The European ridge has been weakening and may allow the ridge of south eastern Canada to slide further to the east. This may cause paulette to loop out to see. It will also cause systems back up the pike to begin pushing more wnw.


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And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are ~31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
 
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GaWx said:
And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are ~31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
Click to expand...
I'm not surprised......too may storms, with too many variables.....the models can barely manage one storm.
 
I’m a bit worried about the “weakening” it’s suppose to do before gaining more strength in the long term. I have seen many storms do that and end up much further west and even scrape the entire east coast.
 
Another oddity with regard to Paulette: although the 12Z CMC ensemble has no member with the wave just off Africa even coming close to the Bahamas and CONUS, it has 4 members (20%) threatening and 2 that hit FL:
 
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I have a feeling it’s gonna get well west of Bermuda with each update of the cone. I would go ahead and say waves&rip currents for NC around 60% chance now instead of 0% a few days ago.
 
With that said, it should miss the Herbert Box and likely will recurve at some point...but I think it bares watching more than some are
 
The 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.

To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major..
 
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