Tropical Hurricane Paulette

[Shaggy]

The 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.

To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major..

Interesting

 

[BirdManDoomW]

It’s a very very small chance this ever hits US but we are approaching the anniversary of Isabel. It managed to landfall despite missing the Herbert Box. The window is quickly going away for a landfall and by Saturday we should know if this could make landfall on Bermuda or not. I sure wouldn’t cancel any beach plans but I would make plans to stay out of the ocean. Below is Isabel becoming annular and overriding all steering influences. Obviously it’s not a true analogue and I wouldn’t be surprised if something like Isabell was a once in a life time track/intensity/etc.

 

[RBR71]

Interesting

Yeah, definitely can't take our eye off of this one. Euro getting it just west of Bermuda now, weaker system early on further west, slightly stronger HP, less progressive pattern, any slight deviation could help push this a little further west

 

[Henry2326]

00z Euro. 9/10

 

[Henry2326]

00 GFS. 9/10

 

[wxdaniel]

00z Euro. 9/10

View attachment 48259

Going to shoot northeast like a rocket

 

[BirdManDoomW]

EURO close to a Bermuda landfall. Very close actually.

 

[Henry2326]

Going to shoot northeast like a rocket

That would be a cat2......been awhile....Sandy was in 2012 but didnt land as a cat.

 

[tramadoc]

It’s a very very small chance this ever hits US but we are approaching the anniversary of Isabel. It managed to landfall despite missing the Herbert Box. The window is quickly going away for a landfall and by Saturday we should know if this could make landfall on Bermuda or not. I sure wouldn’t cancel any beach plans but I would make plans to stay out of the ocean. Below is Isabel becoming annular and overriding all steering influences. Obviously it’s not a true analogue and I wouldn’t be surprised if something like Isabell was a once in a life time track/intensity/etc. View attachment 48244

I think you’re misconstruing the Herbert Box. It’s only useful for predicting if a strong storm will hit south Florida, not the entire east coast.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I think you’re misconstruing the Herbert Box. It’s only useful for predicting if a strong storm will hit south Florida, not the entire east coast.

True but missing the box really cuts down those chances everywhere IMO esp with Florida taking the majority of all storms.

 

[Henry2326]

18z GFS....9/10.....slightly slower than 12z.....

 

[BufordWX]

Not much talk about Paulette, but it should be noted that Bermuda is now under a Hurricane Warning and the NHC has Paulette passing fairly close to the island.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[BufordWX]

Looks like we are gonna have a new hurricane at the next advisory.

 

[Weatherlover92]

...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING...

11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 Location: 28.9°N 59.7°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 981 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

 

[Henry2326]

Based on something he said yesterday, I think Andrew lives on Bermuda....

 

[ForsythSnow]

NHC does also now expect this to become a cat 3 at peak. That'll add 1 to the majors for the season.

 

[Henry2326]

I will keep an eye on his twitter to see if he posts pics.

 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS has at 294 a weak but hanging on Paulette way ESE of Teddy at 26N, 39W moving WSW!

 

[BufordWX]

Gonna be a stormy night in Bermuda...

 

[BufordWX]

From the NHC...

Internet communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been disrupted due to a possible island-wide power outage. Only cell
phone service is available.

Things must be escalating in Bermuda.

 

[Shaggy]

From the NHC...

Internet communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been disrupted due to a possible island-wide power outage. Only cell
phone service is available.

Things must be escalating in Bermuda.

Gusting to 74kts before the outage

 

[Shaggy]

Reports from the Bermuda Weather Service indicate that a gust to 117 mph (189 km/h) was measured at the Marine Operations Center (MAROPS), which is elevated at 290 ft above sea level.

 

[Shaggy]

Not sure they will declare this an official landfall or not. Appears the center of the center may have missed by mere miles.

 

[wxdaniel]

Not sure they will declare this an official landfall or not. Appears the center of the center may have missed by mere miles.

That is really rare the eyewall passes right over one little island in the middle of the NA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[ForsythSnow]

100 mph cat 2 now

 

[BirdManDoomW]

New NHC cone shifts south and threatens the Azores Islands Saturday-Sunday.

 

[Henry2326]

Seriously......Paulette to swing back around, last storm sitting under the High....
00z Euro

 

[tramadoc]

Seriously......Paulette to swing back around, last storm sitting under the High....
00z Euro

View attachment 48631

View attachment 48632

She thinks she’s in a Fast and Furious movie doing the Tokyo Drift.

 

[Henry2326]

She thinks she’s in a Fast and Furious movie doing the Tokyo Drift.

Lol....watching the model run, was like what the heck is happening....

 

[lexxnchloe]

Another Ginger?

 

[SD]

18z gfs at 318 hours still going

You could make a case that it's a non 0 chance of making it to the US in that setup

 

[BirdManDoomW]

18z gfs at 318 hours still going
View attachment 48705
You could make a case that it's a non 0 chance of making it to the US in that setup

it’s gonna be tired like a fat man running 1 mile this storm gonna be tired and give up it can’t run that long heart beat would kill it eventually

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Maybe she'll slowly circle back around for another go at Bermuda. lol

 

[BufordWX]

Euro wants to take Paulette back home to Africa towards the end of the run...

 

[Henry2326]