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Tropical Hurricane Paulette

GaWx

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And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are ~31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
 
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Henry2326

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And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are ~31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
I'm not surprised......too may storms, with too many variables.....the models can barely manage one storm.
 

BirdManDoomW

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I’m a bit worried about the “weakening” it’s suppose to do before gaining more strength in the long term. I have seen many storms do that and end up much further west and even scrape the entire east coast.
 

GaWx

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Another oddity with regard to Paulette: although the 12Z CMC ensemble has no member with the wave just off Africa even coming close to the Bahamas and CONUS, it has 4 members (20%) threatening and 2 that hit FL:
 
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BirdManDoomW

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I have a feeling it’s gonna get well west of Bermuda with each update of the cone. I would go ahead and say waves&rip currents for NC around 60% chance now instead of 0% a few days ago.
 

BirdManDoomW

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With that said, it should miss the Herbert Box and likely will recurve at some point...but I think it bares watching more than some are
 

GaWx

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The 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.

To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major..
 
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BirdManDoomW

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It’s a very very small chance this ever hits US but we are approaching the anniversary of Isabel. It managed to landfall despite missing the Herbert Box. The window is quickly going away for a landfall and by Saturday we should know if this could make landfall on Bermuda or not. I sure wouldn’t cancel any beach plans but I would make plans to stay out of the ocean. Below is Isabel becoming annular and overriding all steering influences. Obviously it’s not a true analogue and I wouldn’t be surprised if something like Isabell was a once in a life time track/intensity/etc. B7338BF0-A92D-489C-A7D0-304F88F41AE7.jpeg
 
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metwannabe

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Interesting
Yeah, definitely can't take our eye off of this one. Euro getting it just west of Bermuda now, weaker system early on further west, slightly stronger HP, less progressive pattern, any slight deviation could help push this a little further west
 

tramadoc

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It’s a very very small chance this ever hits US but we are approaching the anniversary of Isabel. It managed to landfall despite missing the Herbert Box. The window is quickly going away for a landfall and by Saturday we should know if this could make landfall on Bermuda or not. I sure wouldn’t cancel any beach plans but I would make plans to stay out of the ocean. Below is Isabel becoming annular and overriding all steering influences. Obviously it’s not a true analogue and I wouldn’t be surprised if something like Isabell was a once in a life time track/intensity/etc. View attachment 48244
I think you’re misconstruing the Herbert Box. It’s only useful for predicting if a strong storm will hit south Florida, not the entire east coast.
 

BirdManDoomW

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I think you’re misconstruing the Herbert Box. It’s only useful for predicting if a strong storm will hit south Florida, not the entire east coast.
True but missing the box really cuts down those chances everywhere IMO esp with Florida taking the majority of all storms.
 

BufordWX

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Not much talk about Paulette, but it should be noted that Bermuda is now under a Hurricane Warning and the NHC has Paulette passing fairly close to the island. 2C5656B4-7367-47BF-B92D-697F978C64BD.png
 
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...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING...
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12
Location: 28.9°N 59.7°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
 

Henry2326

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Based on something he said yesterday, I think Andrew lives on Bermuda....

 
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