I'm not surprised......too may storms, with too many variables.....the models can barely manage one storm.And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are ~31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
I think you’re misconstruing the Herbert Box. It’s only useful for predicting if a strong storm will hit south Florida, not the entire east coast.It’s a very very small chance this ever hits US but we are approaching the anniversary of Isabel. It managed to landfall despite missing the Herbert Box. The window is quickly going away for a landfall and by Saturday we should know if this could make landfall on Bermuda or not. I sure wouldn’t cancel any beach plans but I would make plans to stay out of the ocean. Below is Isabel becoming annular and overriding all steering influences. Obviously it’s not a true analogue and I wouldn’t be surprised if something like Isabell was a once in a life time track/intensity/etc. View attachment 48244
True but missing the box really cuts down those chances everywhere IMO esp with Florida taking the majority of all storms.I think you’re misconstruing the Herbert Box. It’s only useful for predicting if a strong storm will hit south Florida, not the entire east coast.
|...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING...|
|11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12|
Location: 28.9°N 59.7°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph