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I’m leaning towards the right gfs it’s been a smidge better than euro recently plus looks stronger solutions will end up further n/e and weaker solutions are s/w due to land.but either way shear and dry air should prevent a major, rain is the main story
...TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS...
Louisiana should not go to sleep on Nick. The key thing to watch for is just how fast it strengthens. Stronger earlier=further east into a more favorable area and stronger down the road away from the forecast shear that will likely decapitate it if the track is to the north-central Texas coast.
I wouldn’t be shocked if it went a little more east than currently progged I see that New Orleans is narrowly outside of the cone but a track on the right side of the NHC cone would be worse case scenario for them that’s based on the current NHC track that is
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