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Tropical Hurricane Nicholas

With about the warmest SSTs in the entire basin over the W GOM, the sky is the limit from that standpoint at least.
 
NHC mentioning a PTC probably coming

Showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche and southern
Gulf of Mexico have been increasing during the past several hours
near and east of a surface trough of low pressure. A tropical
depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the
system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of
northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through
the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and
interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
morning, and potential tropical cyclone advisories could be
initiated later today.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce
heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, including the
western Yucatan Peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions
of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat
continuing across those coasts through the middle of the week.
Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially
resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
An east track, still on the table per models, would bring impacts across the s/e after hitting Louisiana. For now tho, Texas seems like more of a target with little to no impacts for the s/e.
 
I’m leaning towards the right gfs it’s been a smidge better than euro recently plus looks stronger solutions will end up further n/e and weaker solutions are s/w due to land.but either way shear and dry air should prevent a major, rain is the main story
 
This could go just enough east to hit Louisiana they need a break such bad luck even on current cone they are on the wet side with tornadoes
 
Louisiana should not go to sleep on Nick. The key thing to watch for is just how fast it strengthens. Stronger earlier=further east into a more favorable area and stronger down the road away from the forecast shear that will likely decapitate it if the track is to the north-central Texas coast.
 
It’s going East of guidance, it appears! ?
 
I wouldn’t be shocked if it went a little more east than currently progged I see that New Orleans is narrowly outside of the cone but a track on the right side of the NHC cone would be worse case scenario for them that’s based on the current NHC track that is
 
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