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Tropical Hurricane Nicholas

BirdManDoomW

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This could go just enough east to hit Louisiana they need a break such bad luck even on current cone they are on the wet side with tornadoes
 
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Louisiana should not go to sleep on Nick. The key thing to watch for is just how fast it strengthens. Stronger earlier=further east into a more favorable area and stronger down the road away from the forecast shear that will likely decapitate it if the track is to the north-central Texas coast.
 

BirdManDoomW

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I wouldn’t be shocked if it went a little more east than currently progged I see that New Orleans is narrowly outside of the cone but a track on the right side of the NHC cone would be worse case scenario for them that’s based on the current NHC track that is
 

Tarheel1

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They are talking about moisture from this getting pulled up here this week, from this!
 

Belle Lechat

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021

heavy rain ahead
of the system
may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding
between southern Louisiana and much of the Texas coastline this
evening
. As Nicholas draws closer to southern Texas on Monday,
additional round of heavy rain and increasing winds are forecast
across the lower and middle Texas Coast. By Tuesday, impacts are
expected to expand into the upper Texas Coast and southwest
Louisiana. Upwards of 20 inches of rain is possible across parts
of the Texas coastline through the middle of the week, with
widespread amounts between southern Texas and southwest Louisiana
around 5 to 10 inches. Rainfall amounts of this magnitude will
likely lead to areas of flash flooding, with considerable flash
flood events possible. To highlight the concern, a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued for Monday and
Tuesday between the lower Texas Coast and southwest Louisiana.

 

GaWx

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IF the 18Z Euro were to closely verify, Houston would have a huge flooding problem: this shows 12-20"+ amounts right in the city with most of this within just a 48 hour period and it still raining due to a near stalled Nicholas:


ecmop_18_ps_gc_hr-0072_0090.png

ecmop_18_h500_gc_h_0090.png
 

Snowfan

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WTNT34 KNHC 130430
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Center reformed north and strengthened.
 

BirdManDoomW

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NHC : Special off hour advisory. Landfall has been sped by 12 hours. Wow. How do you prepare for that?
 

BirdManDoomW

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If gfs is right we are gonna need an inland thread soon for tornadoes/flooding for Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, North Georgia, upstate SC and western NC.
 
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