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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Storm5 said:
I would never wish dead grass on anyone, but I'm getting close #knightdale
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It's already dead

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Storm5 said:
I would never wish dead grass on anyone, but I'm getting close #knightdale
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#JONESVILLE! :)
 
Well here we go again, :D Cant believe were in live mode again with yet another storm. Next storm will hopefully be a nice Winterstorm.:weenie::weenie::weenie:
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Oy. The Euro just destroys WNC with rain. 10+ in some areas in a short amount of time. No bueno with the wind.
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I only got 2" with Irma , and that's the last drop of rain I've seen! Bring it!
 
Hope JB and the Euro are right with the track. Need some Rain: They both may be on to something, could very easily get a pretty strong cane if shear isnt an issue:

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Break time almost over ... clients back in 5; just one quick thought - there is (according to what I saw at 5:00 this morning) a cold front moving east --- should impact an eventual track / landfall point depending on how quick and how strong the front is ... something I haven't had time to study on the afternoon models ... but something worth paying attention to in the next 24 to 36 ... if there is a front ...
 
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Right at about 375 mile difference between the GFS and Euro landfall points lol

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Storm5 said:
That's the 00z eps

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Like I said - I'm living in a cave ... pardon me ... :confused:
Still headed over to Cedar Key tomorrow night ... could be a bit squally come Saturday, though ...
 
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pcbjr said:
like i said - i'm living in a cave ... pardon me ... :confused:
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It's alright, the next run will be 100 miles east or west of the last run! Looks like 100% chance it hits the US, gotta focus on intensity now.
 
It's amazing how the GFS and Euro and their ensembles are worlds apart . We are talking landfall Saturday .......

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Euro and the EPS are essentially lock step on a central panhandle landfall. Which, IMO, is most likely destination.
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Eps shifted west but I agree the panhandle seems the likely landing spot . Timing is important . The GFS is fast with the system allowing for it to get west before the trough moves in. The euro is almost 24 hours slower with the system allowing the trough to move in and turn nate NE. Lots of moving parts

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Watches will likely be issued for parts of the gulf coast tomorrow

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This eps run most members keep the system above 980mb that would be great
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I thought this was a fast moving storm. How come the rain fall is expected to be high inland?


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Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over
the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in
the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices
are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance
of rapid intensification occurring.

5pm track close to the Euro, landfall around Panama City
 
If I learned anything this hurricane season, it's the NHC official forecast has been very good. They have been leaning toward the Euro solutions and adjusting accordingly, but overall they have verified well. Living and dying by each model run's track seems to be futile.
 
tractor girl said:
Could this system develop into a cat 2 or 3 in time before making landfall?
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All I can add is that models have seriously under developed with regards to intensity this year and how quick they strengthen... Will this be the case here well we will be finding out next 48 hours or so


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DustinWX said:
I thought this was a fast moving storm. How come the rain fall is expected to be high inland?


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Unseasonably high PWATS, the potential for a weak remnant cold front, and upper divergence from the incoming trough will promote rain well ahead of the system. Pretty decent PRE setup

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