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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Ok people, my wife and I are in Gulf Breeze this weekend visiting the grand babies. Hopefully it will slow down some.
 
Ok, back to the tropics once more. Im actually pulling for a weak system for rain purpose, but models have it becoming a bit strong.
 
Per 12Z Euro shear forecast maps (I don't know if we can trust them, however..can we??), shear stays mainly under 10 knots anywhere near the projected track of the center all of the way to the Gulf.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If the Euro's path is correct, that won't be a low grade cat 1 in the Gulf, but a very strong major hurricane headed toward the US unless there is tons of shear or at least quite a bit.
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One thing to watch for this time of year is very dry air sitting just inland as fronts make it farther south.

As crazy as it may seem, Harvey was the only strengthening major hurricane to hit the GOM(not including FL) in a very very long time.
 
Arcc said:
One thing to watch for this time of year is very dry air sitting just inland as fronts make it farther south.

As crazy as it may seem, Harvey was the only strengthening major hurricane to hit the GOM(not including FL) in a very very long time.
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True, but the GFS, Euro, and CMC have a front coming in a day or so after landfall with plenty of moisture in front. I doubt this would strengthen at landfall, but if we get a major hurricane at landfall, it could have tropical storm impacts well inland if it hits that strong.
 
I wish nothing but the best for anyone and for all ... and if that dadgum thing has to form, Lord do I hope the models don't start another east trend ... go west, go southwest, heck, go south and go away young man ... :confused:
though I honestly understand that west and southwest and south defies all logic ... one can still hope that we're done with this year ... :cool:
 
One th ing is for sure if it becomes a TS or Hurricane those conditions will extend inland pretty far as the system is flying N/NE after landfall

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Storm5 said:
One th ing is for sure if it becomes a TS or Hurricane those conditions will extend inland pretty far as the system is flying N/NE after landfall

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6 days out, but ...
at least it won't interfere with Friday in Cedar Key ... or will it ...
 
Landfall 12z Sunday and by 12z Monday its moving out of eastern Kentucky...... flying NE

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Storm5 said:
Landfall 12z Sunday and by 12z Monday its moving out of eastern Kentucky...... flying NE

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Sir Charles,
It is the 18Z, dear chap ... :cool:
Tally-ho ...
 
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ForsythSnow said:
True, but the GFS, Euro, and CMC have a front coming in a day or so after landfall with plenty of moisture in front. I doubt this would strengthen at landfall, but if we get a major hurricane at landfall, it could have tropical storm impacts well inland if it hits that strong.
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Very true, the reason why I excluded FL was for a reason in '04. So it could definitely hold its own if the front with associated shear/dry air is slow to arrive.
 
Storm5 said:
I mean in general not just the gfs. With the approaching front the flow will be fast SW to NE

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I know - it's just I'm TC'd out and wanted to toss some levity ... ;)
Taking me seriously, unless I say it's serious, can cause the unintended burp ...
 
pcbjr said:
6 days out, but ...
at least it won't interfere with Friday in Cedar Key ... or will it ...
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Not Fri and probably not Sat but if you were to still be there Sun, it could easily interfere especially late in the day.
 
Well, Brad Nitz on the local news is already saying it will likely become Nate and may become a hurricane . Already telling the public about a storm that has yet to get an advisory isn't that smart, but the consensus is there for a storm. Can't wait for the HWRF and HMON runs. Those will be real weenie runs I bet eventually, or rather terrifying.
 
18z GEFS FWIW. Some low end hurricanes and strong TS RD in the mix that run
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