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Tropical Hurricane Nate

ForsythSnow said:
Well, Brad Nitz on the local news is already saying it will likely become Nate and may become a hurricane . Already telling the public about a storm that has yet to get an advisory isn't that smart, but the consensus is there for a storm. Can't wait for the HWRF and HMON runs. Those will be real weenie runs I bet eventually, or rather terrifying.
Click to expand...

Meh, if potential "Nate" was over a week from now from affecting the SE, I would agree, but were talking about medium range (3-5 days) and there is a model consensus on a strengthening tropical storm/hurricane. I think it's ok to acknowledge the possibility given how intense this hurricane season has been thus far. We'll likely have Nate by this time tomorrow/Thursday anyway.

18z HMON is a C. FL panhandle landfall fwiw.
hmon_mslp_wind_90L_41.png
 
Code Red

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
18z HWRF is more excited than the HMON, you don't see that happen often. Cat. 2/Borderline Cat. 3 hurricane.
hwrf_mslp_wind_90L_38.png
 
The models show pretty good amounts of moisture inland and ahead as it moves toward the northern Gulf, that combined with it's fast forward motion of 25 mph (which is nearly identical to Opal of 1995) could cause things could get interesting well inland for some areas if it happened to get powerful over the Gulf.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Meh, if potential "Nate" was over a week from now from affecting the SE, I would agree, but were talking about medium range (3-5 days) and there is a model consensus on a strengthening tropical storm/hurricane. I think it's ok to acknowledge the possibility given how intense this hurricane season has been thus far. We'll likely have Nate by this time tomorrow/Thursday anyway.

18z HMON is a C. FL panhandle landfall fwiw.
hmon_mslp_wind_90L_41.png
Click to expand...
Very euro/ukmet like

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I would say HWRF is right in the middle of the best consensus track as of right now. It brings it up to about a Cat 3 which would not be surprising given the low shear, warm waters, and smaller size (as long as the Yucatan does not disentangle it). The forward movement is faster than Ivan and Katrina and there are winds over Birmingham at 55 mph with gusts to hurricane strength, which would be stronger sustained inland than Ivan at face value .
 
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I'm hugging the Euro track! I need that to happen!
 
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