Tropical Hurricane Nate

[Brent]

GFS is broad and weak this run into LA

Actually stronger inland over MS

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z CMC is stronger than its 12Z run and a good bit stronger than the 0Z GFS as it landfalls in Mobile. But it is the CMC.

 

[GaWx]

UKMET much stronger


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2017

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.0N 83.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2017 36 14.7N 83.3W 1002 27
0000UTC 06.10.2017 48 17.0N 84.9W 999 31
1200UTC 06.10.2017 60 18.7N 86.5W 995 34
0000UTC 07.10.2017 72 20.6N 87.9W 993 32
1200UTC 07.10.2017 84 22.8N 89.1W 993 38
0000UTC 08.10.2017 96 25.6N 89.0W 991 43
1200UTC 08.10.2017 108 29.0N 87.4W 985 54
0000UTC 09.10.2017 120 31.7N 85.1W 984 33
1200UTC 09.10.2017 132 33.2N 83.0W 993 32
0000UTC 10.10.2017 144 33.6N 82.2W 1000 20

Based on the 985 mb, that would be a cat 1 H moving NNE into the FL Panhandle and then still a formidable storm as it moves NE through far SE AL and then into SW GA.

Edited

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

im going to stick with the cmc for now. something tell me this will split bama and ol' miss right down the center

 

[GaWx]

OZ GEPS (CMC ens): much stronger members on average vs 12Z GEPS with many more stronger members (Hs). The hits go from E LA through Ft. Myers, FL. The biggest hits are on Biloxi, 2 on Pensacola, 1 on Apalachicola, 2 on Tampa, and 1 on Ft. Myers. These 7 hit between 10/8 and 10/10.

 

[Brent]

70/80 at 2am

I would expect a PTC tomorrow at the least

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS similar to 18Z GEFS with it being touch weaker on average. Landfall sweet spot from C LA through AL, which is similar to the 18Z GEFS and earlier GEFS but well west of the 0Z GEPS/12Z EPS means.

 

[GaWx]

Convection now really firing up near the center.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro is slightly weaker than 12Z Euro due to more land interaction with NE Nicaragua/E Honduras. But afterward, track very similar so far.

Edit: Track entering SE GOM suggests a bit further east track to the CONUS. Let's see if that verifies on this run.

edit 2: Phil not going to like this run

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

GFS UKMET AND ECMWF COME OUT AT 0200 CDT OR EASTERN ??

 

[GaWx]

^ GFS starts ~2230 CDT;. UK out near 2315 CDT. Euro starts ~0045 CDT.

Phil is going to need to make sure he gets home by Saturday if the 0Z Euro is right as it hits Big Bend on Sun 10/8 early afternoon. This is ~100 miles east of the 12Z Euro landfall. It later hits most of S GA, especially SC/SE with a pretty big blow, followed by a nasty hit on the E Carolinas 10/9. Climo actually says this is a favored track for early Oct. Can you say widespread power outages again?

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

10-4
if that run verifies then he will not be in a good predicament, but i still think MS/AL border is play for now. as always way to early to tell at this time

 

[accu35]

6z gfs comes in weaker

 

[Arcc]

I bet we have a TD soon. Looks like banding forming in the northern quads.

 

[Storm5]

06z tropical models are way east. Starting to believe the GFS is too far west and will correct east over the coming days. I think the the Euro is too far east and will correct west towards a solution it has yesterday , panhandle into southern Georgia. The 00z ukmet showed this

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[Storm5]

I'm surprised the Euro wasn't stronger. Keeps it over water pretty much the whole time. I guess the one thing the system has going against is its size. It's gonna take a while for a larger system like this to get wrapped up

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[$alt]

Keep track of Ryan Maue's new site. He is slowly building up the site as well as all the Euro maps for all public access.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

UKMET data also. Lots of fun things are going to be happening over there on his new website. I can't give many details, but it'll be amazing.

 

[deltadog03]

I think this has good potential to develop but should be nothing like the previous storms strength wise. Maybe a low end cat 1. My guess for now would he strong TS and prob lopsided a bit as well.

 

[WeatherLC]

I think this has good potential to develop but should be nothing like the precious storms strength wise. Maybe a low end cat 1. My guess for now would he strong TS and prob lopsided a bit as well.

Whatcha basing this on Chris ?


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