Tropical Hurricane Nate

[ForsythSnow]

I'm not buying this HMON run given it weakens to be Nate over water. As for the HWRF, that is a reasonable yet bad solution. We would see major hurricane 6 and major US landfall number 3 (4 if you count PR) this year, something we don't need.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Category 3 strength on HWRF...(100.3 kts)

EDITED: I always get the kts speeds mixed up.

 

[Weatherlover92]

I'm not buying this HMON run given it weakens to be Nate over water. As for the HWRF, that is a reasonable yet bad solution. We would see major hurricane 6 and major US landfall number 3 (4 if you count PR) this year, something we don't need.

Yeah, that is weird...

 

[accu35]

Major hurricane landfall in Louisiana headed towards MS/AL.

Can you post image please

 

[Weatherlover92]

Can you post image please

 

[Weatherlover92]

As far as track is concerned, the NAM is closer to the Euro (FL panhandle) than it is to the GFS (Louisiana).

 

[Brent]

:weenie::weenie::weenie:

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like another wind threat like Irma's for N GA and N AL. Reduce those values down and you get 35 to 55 mph I would say at the surface.

 

[WeatherLC]

Looks like another wind threat like Irma's for N GA and N AL. Reduce those values down and you get 35 to 55 mph I would say at the surface.

Gust or sustained ?


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[ForsythSnow]

Gust or sustained ?


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Probably sustained. Gusts could be to 60 per that run. Here is the worst over our areas at 850 mb. That would be bad for the mountains though especially in NC because that would be surface, not higher up.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Probably sustained. Gusts could be to 60 per that run. Here is the worst over our areas at 850 mb. That would be bad for the mountains though especially in NC because that would be surface, not higher up.

Let's do it again!!!

 

[RBR71]

I'm sure the western track will verify and leave most of SC/NC high and dry again. RDU today 21 days straight no measurable precip

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[deltadog03]

Well hmm.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

If Trough slows down, Don't be surprised if this system trends west and could be a Texas/LA Issue!!! Fear the West Trend!!

 

[Storm5]

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[Storm5]

If Trough slows down, Don't be surprised if this system trends west and could be a Texas/LA Issue!!! Fear the West Trend!!

Wouldn't be a bad thing , but I think there are limitations as to how far west it can get . The further west the better for the southeast as it would pump plenty of moisture across the region

 

[Storm5]

I'm sure the western track will verify and leave most of SC/NC high and dry again. RDU today 21 days straight no measurable precip

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a west track would be a bad thing . The heavy rain would most likely stay to your west but you would still see an increase regardless.

Plus , we still don't kmow where it's going

 

[Storm5]

I think ARCC pointed this out earlier but you can clearly see banding around the center. Won't be too long before we have Nate

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[Storm5]

At hour 48 the Euro is way east of the gfs and cmc

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[Storm5]

Lol then shoots west at hour 72

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[accu35]

Euro so far.

 

[Storm5]

12z Euro is already west of its 00z run at hour 72

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[accu35]

Hr 96 east again lol

 

[Storm5]

Euro headed NE at 96.... gonna make landfall way east of the gfs,CMC and ukmet


Gonna be the strongest of the 12z models runs as well
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[accu35]

 

[Brent]

Euro in the 960s on hi res maps at 96

 

[RBR71]

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[Storm5]

Landfall west of the 00z run

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[Storm5]

So all guidance shifted west on the 12z runs.

One thing is for sure we dont want the 12z euro strength to verify

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[SD]

So all guidance shifted west on the 12z runs.

One thing is for sure we dont want the 12z euro strength to verify

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Wishcast

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[Storm5]

Wishcast

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Who is wishcssting??? It's reality

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[NorthGaWinter4]

Hasn't the euro been doing pretty well?....

 

[Storm5]

Hasn't the euro been doing pretty well?....

The Euro always does well

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[NorthGaWinter4]

The Euro always does well

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Oy... what a cane season if it verifies

 

[accu35]

Is this gonna go on live mode since were getting closer in time?

 

[SD]

Who is wishcssting??? It's reality

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Wishcast5

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[Storm5]

Is this gonna go on live mode since were getting closer in time?

It's on

 

[Brent]

Euro gets to 960 mb just before Panama City

 

[pcbjr]

Buried on law stuff and can only pop in a second or two here or there, but the Euro is disconcerting ... seems east ... am I missing something?

 

[Storm5]

Wishcast5

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I would never wish dead grass on anyone, but I'm getting close #knightdale

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