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Tropical Hurricane Nate

DustinWX said:
Whatcha basing this on Chris ?


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I would say based on the pattern. Looks like a strong SW to NE flow is gonna be there in front of the cold front. Winds and precip might be a east weighted
 
Tropical models shift west a little at 12z
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Cyclone potential has dropped off quite a bit in the Gulf and upper Caribbean, but look at where the system is, and look at the potentials. Have to watch the intensity of the system when it forms just to see if it stays weak or begins strengthening. Now I am not saying we will see an intense hurricane quickly, but rather there is a lot of energy down there and anything can happen, and by how this season has gone I wouldn't doubt a major hurricane unless this storm rides land a lot.
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ForsythSnow said:
Cyclone potential has dropped off quite a bit in the Gulf and upper Caribbean, but look at where the system is, and look at the potentials. Have to watch the intensity of the system when it forms just to see if it stays weak or begins strengthening. Now I am not saying we will see an intense hurricane quickly, but rather there is a lot of energy down there and anything can happen, and by how this season has gone I wouldn't doubt a major hurricane unless this storm rides land a lot.
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Seems to be a theme this season of models missing the intensity and quickness of intensification, hopefully this will not continue the theme!? But as you stated, stay over open ocean, with all that bath water , could be trouble
 
Storm5 said:
The HMON is laughable .

00z vs 06z
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Could be due to the fact that it just started running at 18Z last night and at least a tropical storm has yet to form. It seems to do that when storms initialize as does the HWRF sometimes, so I usually just wait for a storm to form, then I use them. Yes, it is funny to look and laugh at the HMON sometimes, especially here where it goes from a strong cat 4 to a weak TD at best.
 
Will officially be TD 16 at 11 am:

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.
 
Nice well defined surface circulation. Not looking too bad this morning . Bet we have a TD

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TS force could extend pretty far inland with the systems forward speed
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Storm5 said:
If that isn't a Euro like track I dont know what is

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It's a Euro focused, but leaned west track.
Storm5 said:
TS force could extend pretty far inland with the systems forward speed
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Not again. I seriously don't want to do tree cleanup again. Already have a large compromised half split limb from Irma that will come down with a big gust. May have to get that trimmed if this comes here.
 
Maximum wind gust from last night's Euro, a weaker system, shows a swath of 40-50 mph all the way into Va. Yesterday's 12z run, a stronger system, had 50-60 that far north
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This should be fun to watch. Still a huge spread as to the track. I still say the gfs is way too far west and the Euro is too far east and there is a compromise eventually with a 12z ukmet of yesterday into SW Georgia after landfall

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Storm5 said:
Meanwhile let's check in on JB's planet for an update ......
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LOL I went over there and it is nothing but self absorbed hype. I stopped listening to him several months ago because of all of it. Meanwhile, the NHC said this:

Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America.
 
NHC on the the eastern envelope of most models from this mornings run and last night exception of the EURO and Ukie



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I'd say he's working the hype pretty good, unfortunately he could be right...


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12z gfs even further west . Very weak. Seems a little slower with the trough
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Storm5 said:
12z gfs even further west . Very weak. Seems a little slower with the trough
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Slower trough is not a crazy idea in fact very plausible and consistent with what we've seen

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12z CMC is identical to the 12z GFS , landfall southern Louisiana
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HWRF steadily strengthens "Nate" into a moderately strong Cat. 2 hurricane from hrs 63-78 (03z Sat - 18z Sat)
 
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