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Tropical Hurricane Nate

ForsythSnow

ForsythSnow

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I think we may get an invest soon, and maybe a storm out of it later. It's starting point is a bit of a worry, as is its path.



1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
This is now invest 90L.

FL, alone, gets hit about once every five years with a major H in Oct when SON Nino 3.4 is between 0 and -1.1. That's about 3 times the climo rate for all years, combined, and way higher than any other ENSO. ALL FL Oct major Hs have hit with SON Nino 3.4 anomalies between -0.03 and -1.10 and the model consensus prediction is for -0.50.

-0.03, -0.30, -0.32, -0.39, -0.40, -0.50, -0.66, -0.80, -1.00. and -1.10
 
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.8N 88.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2017 120 28.6N 87.7W 999 30
0000UTC 09.10.2017 132 30.3N 86.4W 997 33
1200UTC 09.10.2017 144 32.0N 83.5W 999 32

Edit: Ooops, this is the 12Z UKMET..
 
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The 12Z Euro track wallops far SE AL, E FL Panhandle, and SW GA with hurricane conditions. Afterward, strong TS conditions central GA to west-central SC and then into NC thereafter. 10/9 would be the big day for the SE US being affected should this track come close to verifying. But it is still kind of early and we know future model tracks will differ.
 
Based on early maps,.I feel pretty confident that the 12Z EPS will be even more active than the already active 0Z EPS.
 
If the Euro's path is correct, that won't be a low grade cat 1 in the Gulf, but a very strong major hurricane headed toward the US unless there is tons of shear or at least quite a bit.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If the Euro's path is correct, that won't be a low grade cat 1 in the Gulf, but a very strong major hurricane headed toward the US unless there is tons of shear or at least quite a bit.
Click to expand...
Wind shear does not look to be an issue at least as of now. To me it's pretty clear, the future strength will 100 percent be related to its track over the next 3 days and how much land interaction it has. The further west it tracks the more interaction it will have with the yucatan and the longer it will take to organize . The further east it stays the more time it spends over very warm water.
 
Keeping in mind the low resolution of ensemble members: practically every of the 50 12Z EPS members has a sub 1000 mb TC (implying TS+) at landfall on the US GOM coast and a good number have sub 992, which would mean H in most cases, especialy considering low res. Tracks are centered around the 12Z Euro op with many landfalls between N.O. and Sarasota, FL. 10/7-10.

As it goes inland, many members wallop parts of S AL and S GA and then on into N GA/SC/NC
 
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GaWx said:
Keeping in mind the low resolution of ensemble members: practically every of the 50 members has a sub 1000 mb TC at landfall on the US GOM coast and a good number have sub 992, which would mean H in most cases, especialy considering low res. Tracks are centered around the 12Z Euro op with many landfalls between N.O. and Sarasota, FL. 10/7-10.

As it goes inland, many members wallop parts of S AL and S GA and then on into N GA/SC/NC
Click to expand...
Could anybody post EURO rainfall amounts?? Or The Track up to the Carolinas??
 
Ok people, my wife and I are in Gulf Breeze this weekend visiting the grand babies. Hopefully it will slow down some.
 
Ok, back to the tropics once more. Im actually pulling for a weak system for rain purpose, but models have it becoming a bit strong.
 
Per 12Z Euro shear forecast maps (I don't know if we can trust them, however..can we??), shear stays mainly under 10 knots anywhere near the projected track of the center all of the way to the Gulf.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If the Euro's path is correct, that won't be a low grade cat 1 in the Gulf, but a very strong major hurricane headed toward the US unless there is tons of shear or at least quite a bit.
Click to expand...

One thing to watch for this time of year is very dry air sitting just inland as fronts make it farther south.

As crazy as it may seem, Harvey was the only strengthening major hurricane to hit the GOM(not including FL) in a very very long time.
 
Arcc said:
One thing to watch for this time of year is very dry air sitting just inland as fronts make it farther south.

As crazy as it may seem, Harvey was the only strengthening major hurricane to hit the GOM(not including FL) in a very very long time.
Click to expand...
True, but the GFS, Euro, and CMC have a front coming in a day or so after landfall with plenty of moisture in front. I doubt this would strengthen at landfall, but if we get a major hurricane at landfall, it could have tropical storm impacts well inland if it hits that strong.
 
I wish nothing but the best for anyone and for all ... and if that dadgum thing has to form, Lord do I hope the models don't start another east trend ... go west, go southwest, heck, go south and go away young man ... :confused:
though I honestly understand that west and southwest and south defies all logic ... one can still hope that we're done with this year ... :cool:
 
One th ing is for sure if it becomes a TS or Hurricane those conditions will extend inland pretty far as the system is flying N/NE after landfall

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Storm5 said:
One th ing is for sure if it becomes a TS or Hurricane those conditions will extend inland pretty far as the system is flying N/NE after landfall

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6 days out, but ...
at least it won't interfere with Friday in Cedar Key ... or will it ...
 
Landfall 12z Sunday and by 12z Monday its moving out of eastern Kentucky...... flying NE

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Storm5 said:
Landfall 12z Sunday and by 12z Monday its moving out of eastern Kentucky...... flying NE

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Sir Charles,
It is the 18Z, dear chap ... :cool:
Tally-ho ...
 
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ForsythSnow said:
True, but the GFS, Euro, and CMC have a front coming in a day or so after landfall with plenty of moisture in front. I doubt this would strengthen at landfall, but if we get a major hurricane at landfall, it could have tropical storm impacts well inland if it hits that strong.
Click to expand...

Very true, the reason why I excluded FL was for a reason in '04. So it could definitely hold its own if the front with associated shear/dry air is slow to arrive.
 
Storm5 said:
I mean in general not just the gfs. With the approaching front the flow will be fast SW to NE

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I know - it's just I'm TC'd out and wanted to toss some levity ... ;)
Taking me seriously, unless I say it's serious, can cause the unintended burp ...
 
pcbjr said:
6 days out, but ...
at least it won't interfere with Friday in Cedar Key ... or will it ...
Click to expand...

Not Fri and probably not Sat but if you were to still be there Sun, it could easily interfere especially late in the day.
 
Well, Brad Nitz on the local news is already saying it will likely become Nate and may become a hurricane . Already telling the public about a storm that has yet to get an advisory isn't that smart, but the consensus is there for a storm. Can't wait for the HWRF and HMON runs. Those will be real weenie runs I bet eventually, or rather terrifying.
 
18z GEFS FWIW. Some low end hurricanes and strong TS RD in the mix that run
d249d0c0808804902bad89299ece6587.jpg


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