Tropical Hurricane Milton

[GaWx]

18Z Icon: barely N of 12Z with it just N of Pt Charlotte Wed night (a bit later)

 

[jrips27]

GFS coming in ~6 hours slower. Maybe a bit south? Hard to tell

 

[Snowfan]

 

[jrips27]

Woah hang on. Way north

 

[DustinWx]

Woah hang on. Way north
View attachment 152633

Back to Taylor county?

 

[Henry2326]

GFS coming in ~6 hours slower. Maybe a bit south? Hard to tell
View attachment 152632

Nope.....dead on....brutal

 

[Brent]

Back to Taylor county?

It's a running joke elsewhere that everything now hits Perry

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It's a running joke elsewhere that everything now hits Perry

If that front coming in from the NW is a little slower, it probably would do just that.

 

[jrips27]

Nope.....dead on....brutal

Thats a good ~50+ miles north of 12z. Still a record surge event into Tampa/St. Pete no doubt, but it avoids the apocalypse 12z with the core passing directly over them.

 

[Henry2326]

Thats a good ~50+ miles north of 12z. Still a record surge event into Tampa/St. Pete no doubt, but it avoids the apocalypse 12z with the core passing directly over them.

We've got 4 more days, maybe 5 if it continues to slow down. It's gonna wobble 50 miles either way every forecast. My opinion it will have greater north wobbles than south. But who knows....

 

[Henry2326]

18z Hmon and Hwrf appear to be more aggressive than 12z and its only downloaded to Monday and Tuesday.

Even Hafs-a and B are bombing out.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Henry2326]

Hafs A and B.

 

[accu35]

4/5 days away is a scary feeling when it comes to shifts or wobbles

 

[Arcc]

If that front coming in from the NW is a little slower, it probably would do just that.

Honestly, that is generally how things work. I thought the same would happen with Helene, but it didn’t.

 

[Henry2326]

4/5 days away is a scary feeling when it comes to shifts or wobbles

Yep, the reason NHC started the cone thing was for this very reason. The models just can't nail down landfall this far out. To many moving variables. In my opinion, if one does, it's sheer luck. So all we can do is look at the totality of the forecasts.

 

[lizajane]

Yep, the reason NHC started the cone thing was for this very reason. The models just can't nail down landfall this far out. To many moving variables. In my opinion, if one does, it's sheer luck. So all we can do is look at the totality of the forecasts.

And prepare for anything and everything.

 

[Henry2326]

It's a running joke elsewhere that everything now hits Perry

You can't make this up...18z Hmon looks like Cedar Keys???
Halfway to Perry... much weaker, although bombed out on the way.
Shear maybe??

 

[Henry2326]

I'm not sure I've seen an ensemble where every run is in the red.

 

[Henry2326]

Looks like a shift north to me.