Tropical Hurricane Milton

jrips27 · 2024-10-06T01:37:17-0400

Euro is a bit south compared to 12z

GaWx · 2024-10-06T01:51:20-0400

So, of most watched globals, all but GFS are S of Tampa.

0Z Summary from N to S:

GFS: just N of Tampa

Euro: Sarasota

Icon: Port Charlotte

CMC: Ft. Myers

UKMET: Naples

Webberweather53 · 2024-10-06T02:13:06-0400

The thing that makes me apprehensive to bite on the southerly global NWP solutions is the fact that the vortex depth & intensity is probably too shallow compared to reality (in part because this is a small TC & they can't resolve Milton's core like the hurricane models can). This makes the storm steer further to the east, whereas a stronger/deeper storm as shown by the higher-res models lifts to the north.

I'm leaning a little more towards the more northerly solutions near or even a tad north of Tampa here.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T03:32:17-0400

T-4 days.....no consensus.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T03:41:18-0400

00z HMON, has now been joined by HAFS A and B for more northerly track, practically identical.
Hwrf direct hit to Tampa. This is the third run (out of 4) with this solution.
All are slower, with landfall on Thursday.

Belle Lechat · 2024-10-06T04:55:58-0400

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6
Location: 23.0°N 94.9°W
Moving: E at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T04:56:54-0400

new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track
and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles.

Belle Lechat · 2024-10-06T04:59:08-0400

jrips27 · 2024-10-06T05:00:32-0400

Henry2326 said:
00z HMON, has now been joined by HAFS A and B for more northerly track, practically identical.
Hwrf direct hit to Tampa. This is the third run (out of 4) with this solution.
All are slower, with landfall on Thursday.

View attachment 152667 View attachment 152668 View attachment 152669 View attachment 152670

Interesting how all of these except HWRF show a hollowed out core upon landfall

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T05:00:32-0400

Oh Lord....I think this got worse from 00z. No consensus.
Looks to be about a 300 mile spread.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T05:02:35-0400

jrips27 said:
Interesting how all of these except HWRF show a hollowed out core upon landfall

I tend to go with Hwrf.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T05:03:15-0400

Belle Lechat said:

It's got some twirl.....

Belle Lechat · 2024-10-06T05:03:18-0400

Mike's Weather Page will be well apprised of Milton.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T05:06:27-0400

Belle Lechat said:
Mike's Weather Page will be well apprised of Milton.

View attachment 152678

Hwrf has it coming in that path at 947 pressure. His winds in that slide are way under done that close to the coast.

Belle Lechat · 2024-10-06T05:13:43-0400

Henry2326 said:
Hwrf has it coming in that path at 947 pressure. His winds in that slide are way under done that close to the coast.

At 15mph the center would have been over land 2 hours

Belle Lechat · 2024-10-06T05:14:58-0400

Presoak

Belle Lechat · 2024-10-06T05:17:59-0400

Belle Lechat · 2024-10-06T05:19:55-0400

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T05:21:23-0400

Belle Lechat said:
At 15mph the center would have been over land 2 hours

It's about 40 miles inland and alot of water in between.
Helene came in at 938 pressure and 60 miles inland at Valdosta, GA sustained winds were 102 mph and 133 Gusts. It took 3 hours to get there.

Henry2326 · 2024-10-06T05:25:09-0400

06z Icon.....makes no sense to me. Never gets lower than the 980s for the full track. Probably impacting track.