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Tropical Hurricane Milton

It will be a close call whether the southern eyewall remains intact at landfall. Modeling consistently depicts westerly shear finally punching dry air into the core in the final hours before landfall. Intense hurricanes always put up a fight against shear but none are immune. Even the mighty Katrina succumbed to a last-minute gulp of dry air bringing max winds down substantially but too late to reduce storm surge. I do worry that Milton may resist disruption a little longer due to the forward movement in tandem with the shear direction.
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Is that a Power Up mid Gulf?
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Henry2326 said:
Movement south.

View attachment 152697

View attachment 152699
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I think I see why the mean over FL is further south. The 12Z guidance’s initialization is at 22.5N, 94.9W, which makes sense since that’s where recon found the center. Compare that to the 5AM EDT NHC track’s latitude of 23.0N 5AM through 2PM. That means the storm in reality is a half a degree further S than the 5AM track.
If anything, this may be good news for Tampa though bad news for SW FL.
 
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Belle Lechat said:
410/06 5:00 AM23.0N94.9W50MPH1003mbE at 5 MPHTSMilton10/06 4:51 AMBeven
4A10/06 8:00 AM22.6N94.9W60MPH991mbE at 5 MPHTSMilton10/06 7:51 AMBlake
510/06 11:00 AM22.4N94.4W65MPH991mbEse at 6 MPHTSMilton10/06 10:57 AMBlake
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From new NHC discussion:

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.
 
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