Tropical Hurricane Milton

[Shaggy]

Wow! The 18Z ICON drives Milton right to the northern Yucatan coast.

Edited to add, look at Larry's precursor TS off the Florida coast too.
View attachment 152720

Yeahs that's a lot of early SE motion. If that's right then a father southeast landfall would be expected. Short term motion so we'll know soon enough if it's right

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Models were showing these dual lows the other day and having difficulty in resolving which one would be dominant. I want to say the GFS actually showed both with some development at one point. I don't think it will change track all that much unless it really blows up

From the 5 PM NHC discussion. I'd call this evolution non-trivial.

"Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton."

 

[rburrel2]

Yeah the big issue will be as it nears Florida it will become increasingly post tropical and that always expands the wind field. If you notice as soon as it clears Florida the NHC has it post tropical

Like Sandy..

Yep. And looking at the models it seems like there will be quite a strong surge along the East coast of northern Florida that’s being enhanced with the transition. That area rarely gets a strong surge from a hurricane.

 

[GaWx]

Wow! The 18Z ICON drives Milton right to the northern Yucatan coast.

Edited to add, look at Larry's precursor TS off the Florida coast too.
View attachment 152720

18Z Icon landfalls like the 12Z at Sarasota but it is delayed til very late Wed night.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Yeahs that's a lot of early SE motion. If that's right then a father southeast landfall would be expected. Short term motion so we'll know soon enough if it's right

 

[Henry2326]

Nam.....Thursday landfall......North.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

18Z Icon landfalls like the 12Z at Sarasota but it is delayed til very late Wed night.

It wasn't long ago that we were expecting a storm to move on an anomalous ENE trajectory into the Florida peninsula. Now it looks to be approaching the coast on a more traditional NE to NNE path. This alone makes forecasting the ultimate landfall location more challenging.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Here we go again with the forecasted strength increasing. Expected to become a cat 4 and hopefully weaken to a cat 3 at landfall. Still, that's a major hurricane, and have to see if it actually weakens

 

[GaWx]

Fwiw here are the TC/STC tracks since 1851 for storms that form 10/1-10:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

 

[jrips27]

GFS is significantly slower so far thru 57

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

NOAA synoptic recon data will be ingested into the 00Z runs. I view the 18Z runs as Happy Hour.

 

[jrips27]

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 152723

@pcbjr and other Hogtownites are probably a little nervous seeing this 18Z GFS track. This landfall near Crystal River is not til 11AM EDT on Thu! Those earlier CMC Fri landfalls aren’t looking quite as crazy as they were.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Recon inbound shortly. I think they'll find about a 100mph CAT 2 cane before the mission is done.

The end-of-day visible presentation is impressive.