• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Milton

12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z
 
GaWx said:
12Z GEFS tells me these things:

- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa

- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational

- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?
Edit: The answer may be that members are run at lower resolution and thus are mainly weaker than the GFS op. With them weaker, they’re track on further S in the progged atmospheric env.
Click to expand...
The GFS op has a more stout WAR and has a stronger shortwave trough over Southern Mississippi/Alabama which digs harder, where the rest of the modeling is more zonal flow across the region.
 
deltadog03 said:
You can see the press from that short wave. It's not digging as much as yesterday, but you can see why this doesn't have a lot of wiggle room north in the shorter term.

View attachment 152716
Click to expand...

Chris and others,
Watch that area of convection in the E GOM. Model consensus is suggesting that COULD spawn a shortlived TC as it moves E to off the FL E coast. Besides affecting stats, I and others are thinking that could potentially have a nontrivial influence of some kind(s) on Milton.
 
GaWx said:
Chris and others,
Watch that area of convection in the E GOM. Model consensus is suggesting that COULD spawn a shortlived TC as it moves E to off the FL E coast. Besides affecting stats, I and others are thinking that could potentially have a nontrivial influence of some kind(s) on Milton.
Click to expand...
There is a clear low-level circulation near 26N 87W. It's highly sheared but it looks pretty vigorous with banding evident to the SE. IDK what to make of this but you've put it on my radar.
 
GaWx said:
12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z
Click to expand...

Now I can see the 6 hour JMA maps. Today’s 12Z JMA is actually close to a Tampa ENE to N of Cape Canaveral path vs being near a Ft. Myers E to Jupiter path yesterday. That’s ~100/150 miles N of yesterday’s run on W/E coast. Just about all prior runs were hitting SW FL.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top