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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Brent said:
UKMET into Miami again, this is getting insane now

0000UTC 17.09.2017 108 25.1N 79.0W 950 83
1200UTC 17.09.2017 120 25.8N 80.3W 945 81
0000UTC 18.09.2017 132 26.6N 81.3W 962 63
1200UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.0N 82.3W 972 63

The end of the track is south of Tampa o_O
Click to expand...
And yet the GFS is ots and more east this run then previous runs.... model wars again. Either ukie scores a huge victory or is really out there this time.
 
The spread in the models is once again crazy. I thought they were only this way with potential winter storms for NC. Meanwhile, WRAL saying they are not too worried because the models show Jose going out to sea.
 
Brent said:
UKMET into Miami again, this is getting insane now

0000UTC 17.09.2017 108 25.1N 79.0W 950 83
1200UTC 17.09.2017 120 25.8N 80.3W 945 81
0000UTC 18.09.2017 132 26.6N 81.3W 962 63
1200UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.0N 82.3W 972 63

The end of the track is south of Tampa o_O
Click to expand...
Well, that is weird. As mentioned, either it wins big or loses horribly. Hoping for a big lose.
 
Well if the Ukmet is on to something we should know within 48 hours....
12L_tracks_latest.png
 
If you liked Irma, the UKMET gives you more from where they came from! :confused:

Seriously, the ukie is either an epic model or insane, hopefully insane.
 
There are some EPS members agreeing with the UKMET with the FL threat. This will be fun to watch unfold.
 
I can't imagine this thing going to Florida a week after Irma...that in itself would be historic wouldn't it?


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Storm5 said:
Who's got the EPS

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Click to expand...

Just back after a 30 hour long power outage.
No member of the 50 12Z EPS member runs even threatens the US. That compares to 3 on the 0Z EPS that hit or got very close to south FL.
 
Well that is that. UKMET is crazy. No way out of 50 EPS members would there be none hitting the SE if there was a chance.
 
GaWx said:
Just back after a 30 hour long power outage.
No member of the 50 12Z EPS member runs even threatens the US. That compares to 3 on the 0Z EPS that hit or got very close to south FL.
Click to expand...
That sucks glad it's back on !! And great news about the eps

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GaWx said:
Just back after a 30 hour long power outage.
No member of the 50 12Z EPS member runs even threatens the US. That compares to 3 on the 0Z EPS that hit or got very close to south FL.
Click to expand...
Hate that happened but glad it's back on! I see one member smoking the same thing as the ukmet...
2a592ff8c3f6dda8798093fefbb774e7.jpg


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If there is any chance, I'd expect more members of both the GEFS and EPS to be getting on board in the next two cycles. If not, good riddance Jose!
 
Shawn said:
If there is any chance, I'd expect more members of both the GEFS and EPS to be getting on board in the next two cycles. If not, good riddance Jose!
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Can't argue with you on that, I'll give till tomorrow's 12z runs to see if anything has changed since it is now making the turn south so the loop is about to commence
 
So just for grins and giggles.... I see I didn't go out far enough on the eps, Jose stalls again way off the midatlantic coast and one crazy member brings into the NE, one heads SW towards Fl/Ga line and the one in the gulf does another loop de loop, Lol!!
eps_cyclone_atlantic_45.png
 
metwannabe said:
So what is the EGRR and the EGR2? Based off the Ukie?
aal12_2017091212_track_late.png
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Lol just found the answer to my own question so yeah it's based off the Ukie, that explains that map
  • EGRR: UK Met Office model with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (the official version, distributed on GTS)
 
UKMET
United Kingdom Meteorological Office

EGRR - UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker ( more )
EGRI - UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 06 hours) ( more )
EGR2 - UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
UKX - UKMET [GFS tracker]
UKXI - UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
UKX2 - UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
UKM - UKMET model (Developmental), automated tracker ( more )
UKMI - UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 06 hours) ( more )
UKM2 - UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
KEGR - UKMET model GTS (2014 test) ( more )
KEGI - UKMET model GTS (2014 test - Interpolated 06 hours)
KEG2 - UKMET model GTS (2014 test - Interpolated 12 hours)
Click to expand...
 
Storm5 said:
Let's see the ukie ensembles

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Who has access? I sure don't....
The UK Met Office's MOGREPS ensemble, as well as the ECMWF EPS, are very able ensemble systems for predicting the tracks of tropical cyclones. The centers that run these ensembles restrict access to their constituent member states or to commercial users.
 
I like the way NHC puts this, lol:

For unknown reasons, the U.K. Met. Office model track continues to
be well west and south of the other guidance. The official
forecast track favors the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, but does
not go as far to the north-northeast as the ECMWF near the end of
the forecast period.
 
metwannabe said:
Who has access? I sure don't....
The UK Met Office's MOGREPS ensemble, as well as the ECMWF EPS, are very able ensemble systems for predicting the tracks of tropical cyclones. The centers that run these ensembles restrict access to their constituent member states or to commercial users.
Click to expand...
Some was posting the ukie ensembles on here during Irma. Maybe they saw them on Twitter or something but I know they were posted

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