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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Jose has an open door to approach or landfall in the SE. However I think the remnants from Irma will lead it ots

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I think it's way too early to definitively say one way or the other, much less have more confidence in any particular solution that Jose will go out to sea or not. Normally, tiny short waves like this embedded within large scale ridge axes trend weaker in the models as verification approaches while the ridge does not. As was the case with Irma recurvature, it's becoming very likely that if this recurves east of the US, it will not be very easy here and is liable to be painfully slow as the steering flow over Jose remains relatively weak for the foreseeable future. Aside from all the nuances in the mid latitude steering flow, we will also have to see if Jose doesn't undergo a center relocation to the south at some point. Definitely a very legitimate possibility when you're dealing with a modest and small hurricane with a relatively more unstable circulation. Plus, with the moderate-high northerly shear displacing most of the convection and cyclonic potential vorticity to the south of Jose's current LLC, the asymmetrical heating distribution will increase the chances the center relocates or a new center forms entirely underneath the deeper convective canopy downshear of the current one. Unfortunately, most global models can't resolve these aforementioned inner core non linearities, which ultimately matter a lot when you're in a pattern characterized by weak steering flow. This essentially means that even very small perturbations and errors like this can grow upscale even faster than usual...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think it's way too early to definitively say one way or the other, much less have more confidence in any particular solution that Jose will go out to sea or not. Normally, tiny short waves like this embedded within large scale ridge axes trend weaker in the models as verification approaches while the ridge does not. As was the case with Irma recurvature, it's becoming very likely that if this recurves east of the US, it will not be very easy here and is liable to be painfully slow as the steering flow over Jose remains relatively weak for the foreseeable future. Aside from all the nuances in the mid latitude steering flow, we will also have to see if Jose doesn't undergo a center relocation to the south at some point. Definitely a very legitimate possibility when you're dealing with a modest and small hurricane with a relatively more unstable circulation. Plus, with the moderate-high northerly shear displacing most of the convection and cyclonic potential vorticity to the south of Jose's current LLC, the asymmetrical heating distribution will increase the chances the center relocates or a new center forms entirely underneath the deeper convective canopy downshear of the current one. Unfortunately, most global models can't resolve these aforementioned inner core non linearities, which ultimately matter a lot when you're in a pattern characterized by weak steering flow. This essentially means that even very small perturbations and errors like this can grow upscale even faster than usual...
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In other words, restock your supplies, folks ... you may need 'em ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
In other words, restock your supplies, folks ... you may need 'em ... o_O
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In other words I wouldn't put much stock in either an OTS or landfall camp yet. Even though most nwp models keep Jose offshore for now, this can give unseasoned weather forecasters a false sense of security because these model suites are very under dispersive. Thus, they often poorly represent and estimate the "true" spread and likelihood of a particular solution or set of solutions & often leaves many in a tailspin wondering how the models could have changed so much... I think once Jose emerges from its cyclonic loop and begins a more climatologically normal heading (~ 3 days from now) we will probably have an idea on the viability of an OTS or landfall solution. Regardless, rough surf, rip currents , & at least minor coastal erosion is pretty much a guarantee at this point for the southeastern US esp the Carolinas
 
Webberweather53 said:
In other words I wouldn't put much stock in either an OTS or landfall camp yet. Even though most nwp models keep Jose offshore for now, this can give unseasoned weather forecasters a false sense of security because these model suites are very under dispersive. Thus, they often poorly represent and estimate the "true" spread and likelihood of a particular solution or set of solutions & often leaves many in a tailspin wondering how the models could have changed so much... I think once Jose emerges from its cyclonic loop and begins a more climatologically normal heading (~ 3 days from now) we will probably have an idea on the viability of an OTS or landfall solution. Regardless, rough surf, rip currents , & at least minor coastal erosion is pretty much a guarantee at this point for the southeastern US esp the Carolinas
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Webb - all I was saying is that folks shouldn't be complacent ... it's a real possibility (not a probability as of now) that folks may need to hunker down again ... regret any confusion from this end, but Man, I haven't slept in 2 days and here I am reading and pontificating ... :eek:
 
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pcbjr said:
Webb - all I was saying is that folks shouldn't be complacent ... it's a real possibility (not a probability as of now) that folks may need to hunker down again ... regret any confusion from this end, but Man, I haven't slept in 2 days and here I am reading and pontificating ... :eek:
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Oh I agree with everything you said I was just trying to make myself clear to others who are reading the forum and are relatively new the uncertainties at hand here and overall likelihood of any given scenario. While we may only be 5-7 days away from feeling sensible impacts (if any) from Jose, the forecast uncertainty in this case is so much larger than it ever was for Irma. Purely from a standpoint of uncertainty and forecast confidence, we should be treating this as if Jose was really an 2-3 extra days away from landmasses further west compared to what we'd normally expect
 
Webberweather53 said:
Oh I agree with everything you said I was just trying to make myself clear to others who are reading the forum and are relatively new the uncertainties at hand here and overall likelihood of any given scenario. While we may only be 5-7 days away from feeling sensible impacts (if any) from Jose, the forecast uncertainty in this case is so much larger than it ever was for Irma. Purely from a standpoint of uncertainty and forecast confidence, we should be treating this as if Jose was really an 2-3 extra days away from landmasses further west compared to what we'd normally expect
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Great minds, this one excluded and not being a part of the club, think alike ... ;)
 
While the position of Jose itself continues to trend more favorably (& slower) on the GFS, as one would expect from canonical NWP tendencies, the ridge to his north & northeast is becoming stronger w/ each successive run and the s/w that is supposed to steer Jose OTS is trending weaker...

228097fe-1057-4c9f-841e-6704ce6b7ba1.gif
 
I don't think we're really going to know with Jose until the loop is completed but nonetheless it's getting ready to play with the fish in this run I think.
 
I really don't trust the GFS on any of this anymore. UKMET + Euro handled the situation well with Irma.
 
Jose is hardly moving at all on this GFS run and rightfully so as the steering currents are going to be very weak if this s/w trough in association w/ the remnants of Irma doesn't miraculously capture him by day 6-7. Exceptional amount of uncertainty here...
gfs_z500aNorm_eus_26.png
 
UKMET again goes into Florida and in just 5 1/2 days

1200UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.0N 80.0W 937 84
0000UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.2N 81.1W 958 61
 
Brent said:
UKMET again goes into Florida and in just 5 1/2 days

1200UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.0N 80.0W 937 84
0000UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.2N 81.1W 958 61
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Yeah, that's at least the 4th run in a row the UKMET has showed Jose as a major hurricane, threatening the east coast of FL... Not sure how viable this solution is given how weak the steering currents are over Jose
 
I'd like to discount it, but it did pretty good with Irma and apparently was the only model in Matthew 5 days out to show a FL hit with everything else OTS

so I can't write it off either
 
00z UKMET in question. Pay no attention to the pressure, as Brent's data shows it to be 937MB before landfall. Either way, UKMET is not letting go of a potential Florida impact as of late.

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
 
I think the key is how strong it gets

The Euro is weak and goes OTS, actually nearly kills it entirely(??)

While the UKMET Is a major hurricane

So hope the shear stays on in the meantime because I think that's our best shot for it to stay away

The thing is I think a lot of the shear is Irma's outflow and that should be going away now that Irma is dying over land

The Euro is near Bermuda the same time the UKMET is bearing down on Florida

...in 5 days

I'm thoroughly confused now and going to bed but I think the ideas are legit :p
 
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To go with that, the JGS2 model has actually gone Southward too and looking at the intensity chart, it's one of the stronger ones along with the UKMET.

12_L_intensity_latest.png
 
EPS spaghetti plot by day 5 shows you just how uncertain this forecast is for Jose. Even by day 5-6, the spread in ensemble members ranges from the east coast of Florida to well north of Bermuda...

eps_slp_mems_swatl_23.png
 
Storm5 said:
Omgd JBs Cone is so wide lol
7a384c2201b3eb049b6451d121cfe192.jpg


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This is funny and JB is well JB and yeah this looks a little "childishly" drawn I guess.... but to be fair, like it or not, he's right. Right now this could go anywhere from Fl to OTS.
 
Like I said, I think we need to see how Jose looks after the loop is finished, the weaker Jose gets from the loop, the more likely it stays OTS but if it doesn't take much of a hit and then strengthens we may be in trouble again here unfortunately.
 
metwannabe said:
This is funny and JB is well JB and yeah this looks a little "childishly" drawn I guess.... but to be fair, like it or not, he's right. Right now this could go anywhere from Fl to OTS.
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It's not going in the gulf and his cone leaves that window open . That map is called protecting against a bust

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Storm5 said:
It's not going in the gulf and his cone leaves that window open . That map is called protecting against a bust

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Irma wasn't going west of Florida either.... my point is when that was posted there were a few ensemble members (as few as there were) that showed this into Fl and then the gulf. I highly doubt it goes into the gulf but I learned a long time ago to never say never when it comes to weather. I'm not defending him necessarily as I too am not a fan of his hype or ego but at that time that "cone" was not that outrageous imo.
 
ForsythSnow said:
He is sure wrong about intensity though. No way Jose becomes a 2 while weakening the next few days.
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I wasn't implying he was right about intensity just the "cone", otherwise I really couldn't care less about JB and his predictions....
 
I swear Irma Remanents are headed due south toward GOM looking at latest radar loop. Thought she was headed NE or supose to be while disengrating. Maybe its just a temp loop while changing its heading
 
UKMET into Miami again, this is getting insane now

0000UTC 17.09.2017 108 25.1N 79.0W 950 83
1200UTC 17.09.2017 120 25.8N 80.3W 945 81
0000UTC 18.09.2017 132 26.6N 81.3W 962 63
1200UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.0N 82.3W 972 63

The end of the track is south of Tampa o_O
 
metwannabe said:
Irma wasn't going west of Florida either.... my point is when that was posted there were a few ensemble members (as few as there were) that showed this into Fl and then the gulf. I highly doubt it goes into the gulf but I learned a long time ago to never say never when it comes to weather. I'm not defending him necessarily as I too am not a fan of his hype or ego but at that time that "cone" was not that outrageous imo.
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But the 500mb pattern is different this time around , I just find it funny how large it is . Maybe he is burnt after going all in on a SC hit with Irma

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